View all newsletters
Sign up to our newsletters

Support 110 years of independent journalism.

  1. Politics
3 May 2013

The UKIP phenomenon: party makes dramatic gains

The party has already made 42 gains and is averaging 26 per cent of the vote in those areas where it stood.

By George Eaton

Most county councils haven’t even begun counting yet, but it’s already clear that it’s Nigel Farage who’ll be wearing the biggest grin today. With seven of 34 councils declared, UKIP has gained 42 seats – two more than it was forecast to gain in total – and is averaging 26 per cent of the vote in those wards where it stood. It is, as the usually restrained pollster John Curtice said, “a phenomenal performance”. 

After a comfortable win in the South Shields by-election (in which UKIP finished second), Labour has gained 30 seats and is hoping to win back Derbyshire and possibly Nottinghamshire and Staffordshire, three of the four councils it lost in 2009. The party is pointing to gains in marginal seats such as Harlow, Stevenage and Hastings as proof that is recovering in those areas it needs to win for a majority at the next election. 

The Tories have already lost 66 seats and appear likely to perform worse than forecast, with the party prepared for losses of up to 500.

After a humiliating result in South Shields, the Lib Dems are taking comfort from their performance in their strongholds. In the eight Lib Dem parliamentary seats where the result has been declared, the party is averaging 33 per cent of the vote, with the Tories on 31 per cent, UKIP on 22 per cent and Labour on 11 per cent. In a by-election in Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam constituency, the party won the seat on an increased share of the vote, with a 4 per cent swing away from Labour. As in Eastleigh, this is evidence that the Lib Dems are benefiting from an incumbency factor, something that should worry the Tories, who are in second place in 37 of the Lib Dems’ 57 seats and who need to capture more than half of those if they are to stand any chance of winning a majority in 2015. 

 

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com Our Thursday ideas newsletter, delving into philosophy, criticism, and intellectual history. The best way to sign up for The Salvo is via thesalvo.substack.com Stay up to date with NS events, subscription offers & updates. Weekly analysis of the shift to a new economy from the New Statesman's Spotlight on Policy team. The best way to sign up for The Green Transition is via spotlightonpolicy.substack.com
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU

Content from our partners
The promise of prevention
How Labour hopes to make the UK a leader in green energy
Is now the time to rethink health and care for older people? With Age UK

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com Our Thursday ideas newsletter, delving into philosophy, criticism, and intellectual history. The best way to sign up for The Salvo is via thesalvo.substack.com Stay up to date with NS events, subscription offers & updates. Weekly analysis of the shift to a new economy from the New Statesman's Spotlight on Policy team. The best way to sign up for The Green Transition is via spotlightonpolicy.substack.com
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU