Could Nadine Dorries defect to UKIP?

Five months after the Conservative whip was suspended from the MP for Bedfordshire, it has still not been restored.

UKIP looks likely to gain upwards of 100 seats today, but one thing Nigel Farage's party still lacks is an MP. As Raf suggested earlier, the party's best hope of changing this in the short-term is a defection from the Tories, so it's worth asking: could Nadine Dorries be the first recruit? More than five months after the Conservative whip was suspended following her stint in the jungle, it has still not been restored. A Tory source told me recently that the whips office was "keen to bring Dorries back into the fold" but that No. 10 remained resistant. 

The MP for Bedfordshire has described UKIP's election success as "the day the political landscape significantly shifted" and has urged those "two arrogant posh boys" - David Cameron and George Osborne - to "reconnect with true Conservative values and work hard over the next two years to win back the core Tory vote".

If they want to avoid handing Farage the political gift of a defection, they might also want to consider reconnecting with Dorries. 

Update: It's worth remembering, of course, that UKIP has had an MP before: Bob Spink, who defected from the Conservatives in 2008. He went on to lose Castle Point to the Tories in 2010. 

Nadine Dorries was suspended from the Conservative Party after appearing on ITV's I’m A Celebrity... Get Me Out Of Here!

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Why relations between Theresa May and Philip Hammond became tense so quickly

The political imperative of controlling immigration is clashing with the economic imperative of maintaining growth. 

There is no relationship in government more important than that between the prime minister and the chancellor. When Theresa May entered No.10, she chose Philip Hammond, a dependable technocrat and long-standing ally who she had known since Oxford University. 

But relations between the pair have proved far tenser than anticipated. On Wednesday, Hammond suggested that students could be excluded from the net migration target. "We are having conversations within government about the most appropriate way to record and address net migration," he told the Treasury select committee. The Chancellor, in common with many others, has long regarded the inclusion of students as an obstacle to growth. 

The following day Hammond was publicly rebuked by No.10. "Our position on who is included in the figures has not changed, and we are categorically not reviewing whether or not students are included," a spokesman said (as I reported in advance, May believes that the public would see this move as "a fix"). 

This is not the only clash in May's first 100 days. Hammond was aggrieved by the Prime Minister's criticisms of loose monetary policy (which forced No.10 to state that it "respects the independence of the Bank of England") and is resisting tougher controls on foreign takeovers. The Chancellor has also struck a more sceptical tone on the UK's economic prospects. "It is clear to me that the British people did not vote on June 23 to become poorer," he declared in his conference speech, a signal that national prosperity must come before control of immigration. 

May and Hammond's relationship was never going to match the remarkable bond between David Cameron and George Osborne. But should relations worsen it risks becoming closer to that beween Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling. Like Hammond, Darling entered the Treasury as a calm technocrat and an ally of the PM. But the extraordinary circumstances of the financial crisis transformed him into a far more assertive figure.

In times of turmoil, there is an inevitable clash between political and economic priorities. As prime minister, Brown resisted talk of cuts for fear of the electoral consequences. But as chancellor, Darling was more concerned with the bottom line (backing a rise in VAT). By analogy, May is focused on the political imperative of controlling immigration, while Hammond is focused on the economic imperative of maintaining growth. If their relationship is to endure far tougher times they will soon need to find a middle way. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.