Miliband can't keep dodging the borrowing question

The Labour leader's World At One interview showed why he should make the explicit case for a short-term increase in borrowing.

Every time that Labour attacks George Osborne for planning to borrow £245bn more than planned, the Tory rejoinder comes, "but you would borrow even more!" Asked today on The World At One whether he would do so, Ed Miliband replied: "I don't accept that borrowing would be higher under a Labour government", arguing that higher growth would mean a lower deficit. But he later added that borrowing would be lower "in the medium term", leaving open the question of whether it would be lower in the short term. 

The answer, of course, is that the deficit would likely be higher in the short term as Labour borrows to fund its five-point stimulus for jobs and growth. But when pressed by Martha Kearney on how the party would meet the £12.5bn cost of a temporary cut in VAT (one of the five policies), Miliband dodged the question and replied: "the whole point about a VAT cut is that it would get growth moving and if you get growth moving you get more tax revenue in". On that point, he is almost certainly correct, which is why Labour can reasonably claim that borrowing would be lower in the medium term. But that doesn't resolve the issue of borrowing in the short-term. 

At some point before the election, and sooner rather than later, Labour will need to decide whether it is prepared to make the explicit Keynesian case for a deficit-financed stimulus. Without declaring that it would borrow for growth (and explaining why), the party merely reinforces the impression that borrowing is always and everywhere an economic ill.

In a radio interview, Miliband can just about get away with an answer as evasive as the one he supplied. But in an election debate with David Cameron, he will not be able to dodge the question of whether Labour would borrow more in the short-term. In which case, Miliband and Ed Balls should prepare a convincing answer now. 

Ed Miliband speaks at the CBI's annual conference on November 19, 2012 in London. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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