John Hayes replaced as energy minister by Michael Fallon

A mini ministerial reshuffle.

David Cameron has made a slight tweak to his ministerial line-up this morning – John Hayes, formerly a Minister of State at the Department for Energy and Climate Change, is to become the prime minister’s senior parliamentary advisor. Michael Fallon, already a Minister of State at the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, takes on the energy brief in addition to his current responsibilities.

The BBC’s Norman Smith reports that the move is designed to give “a more business focus” to energy policy. But questions will be asked about whether John Hayes is indeed being promoted, or in fact brought closer to heel. Michael Savage of the Times tweets that Hayes’ departure will help solve the “awful” atmosphere at DECC, and it’s been no secret that he’s clashed with Lib Dem Energy Secretary Ed Davey, particularly over wind farms. 

Tim Montgomerie is cheerful about the move – he applauds the decision to bring Hayes, a “non-southern, non-posh voice” - closer to the No 10 operation. Similarly, the Telegraph’s Benedict Brogan appears to be delighted to see Fallon recognised with a bigger brief – he calls him “one of the proper grown-ups”.

It’s not clear exactly how Michael Fallon is going to balance ministerial jobs in two different departments, but it is apparent that his ability to get on with a Lib Dem Secretary of State at BIS is being rewarded – by avoiding public clashes with Vince Cable, Fallon has charmed his way into David Cameron’s good books for sure. Now he will be expected to do the same with Ed Davey. We have yet another indication, if we even needed it, that the Conservatives are committed to trying to preserve Coalition harmony for the foreseeable future.

John Hayes speaking at the 2011 Conservative Party conference. Photograph: Getty Images

Caroline Crampton is assistant editor of the New Statesman. She writes a weekly podcast column.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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