Why Miliband’s tax move is good news for the Lib Dems

The Labour leader's speech has reminded voters of two distinctive and popular Lib Dem policies: increasing the personal allowance and introducing a mansion tax.

Attempting to predict the issues that are likely to feature in a future general election is as foolhardy as it is difficult. However great the plans of those competing, however well honed their message calendars, the one thing we all know for certain is that events come along like storms in the desert and change the political landscape before our eyes.

But we speculate anyway, and occasionally we get it right. Probably the surest prediction we can make about the issues likely to be at play in the 2015 general election is that tax policy will feature heavily. Ed Miliband’s speech yesterday makes that as close to a certainty as possible.
 
The official Liberal Democrat response to Miliband’s speech was dismissive of his overall proposals: the Liberal Democrats in government have reduced the income tax paid by those on the lowest incomes by more in three years than Labour did in thirteen.
 
And the analysis of the speech by the Institute for Fiscal Studies supported the party’s assertion that the Lib Dem policy of raising the threshold at which people begin to pay income tax is a less complex and more effective way of helping the low paid than re-introducing the 10p rate.
 
Yet despite criticising the content, Liberal Democrats will be secretly rather happy with the Labour leader’s speech, for two reasons.
 
First, it shifts the political debate to the area where the Lib Dems are at their strongest: tax policy. For whatever else the party has done in government, it is the implementation of a £10,000 tax-free allowance that is cutting through the fog and being recognised by voters as a distinctive achievement.
 
In the run-up to the next general election, Liberal Democrats will want to talk of little else. Raising the threshold further – to the level of the average earnings of those on the national minimum wage – is already party policy. The party reasons that the combined message of having delivered the £10,000 threshold and seeking to go further in the next parliament is a very strong one indeed.
 
The second reason Liberal Democrats will be pleased with the speech is Miliband’s embrace of a mansion tax. You might think that the party would be annoyed by Labour’s blatant theft of one of its key policies, but actually the reverse is true.
 
The mansion tax is embedded in the minds of the public as a Lib Dem policy. It is unlikely that a random conversion to the merits of the idea will convince voters that if they want a mansion tax they should vote Labour. So by adopting the policy Miliband’s main achievement is to remind voters of the mansion tax, and to increase its importance in the political debate over taxation. Why would Liberal Democrats not welcome such a boost for one of the party’s most distinctive policies?
 
Labour's adoption of the policy also helps when it comes to negotiations in the event of another hung parliament, particularly if (as looks distinctly possible) the arithmetic allows for an arrangement between the Liberal Democrats and either Labour or the Tories. Most party members will not welcome Miliband’s change of heart because it is more likely to lead to a Labour-Lib Dem government. Contrary to popular belief, only a small number of party members would actively prefer that option.
 
Most Liberal Democrats would prefer to enter into an arrangement with whichever party agrees to implement more Lib Dem policies. And just as Labour’s warmer feelings towards electoral reform strengthened the Lib Dem hand in 2010 sufficiently to force the Tories into agreeing a referendum on the alternative vote, so the party’s embrace of a mansion tax makes it more likely that the policy will be implemented if Liberal Democrats end up in government, be it with Labour or the Tories.
 
Whether Miliband’s speech does Labour any good in the long-term remains to be seen, but Liberal Democrats should welcome it: there is every chance it will help Clegg’s party even more.
 
Nick Thornsby is a Liberal Democrat member and activist. His own blog can be found here
Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and Business Secretary Vince Cable during a visit to the Ricardo Engine Assembly plant on September 24, 2012 in Shoreham-by-Sea. Photograph: Getty Images.
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Election 2017: The 50 Labour MPs most at risk of losing their seats

Dozens of Labour MPs are at risk of losing their seats on June 8. Here are the 50 sitting MPs most at risk. 

Labour MPs representing marginal seats are at risk of losing their seats should their party's low polling numbers translate into electoral reality. Here's a full list of the 50 sitting MPs with the smallest majorities. 

Chris Matheson – City of Chester
Majority: 93 (0.2 per cent of total turnout)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Rupa Huq – Ealing Central & Acton
Majority: 274 (0.5 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Albert Owen – Ynys Mon
Majority: 229 (0.6 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Plaid Cymru

Ruth Cadbury – Brentford & Isleworth
Majority: 465 (0.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Margaret Greenwood – Wirral West
Majority: 417 (0.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Holly Lynch – Halifax
Majority: 428 (1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Daniel Zeichner – Cambridge
Majority: 599 (1.1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Liberal Democrats

Wes Streeting – Ilford North
Majority: 589 (1.2 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Paul Farrelly – Newcastle-under-Lyme
Majority: 650 (1.5 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

John Woodcock – Barrow & Furness
Majority: 795 (1.8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Tulip Siddiq – Hampstead & Kilburn
Majority: 1138 (2.1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Joan Ryan – Enfield North
Majority: 1086 (2.3 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Peter Kyle – Hove
Majority: 1236 (2.4 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Paula Sheriff – Dewsbury
Majority: 1451 (2.3 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Cat Smith – Lancaster & Fleetwood
Majority: 1265 (3.1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Natascha Engel - North East Derbyshire
Majority: 1883 (3.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Gareth Thomas – Harrow West
Majority: 2208 (4.8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Madeleine Moon – Bridgend
Majority: 1927 (4.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Karen Buck – Westminster North
Majority: 1977 (5 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Iain Murray – Edinburgh South
Majority: 2637 (5.3 per cent)
Second place in 2015: SNP

Rosena Allin-Khan – Tooting
Majority: 2842 (5.3 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Ian Lucas – Wrexham
Majority: 1831 (5.6 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Richard Burden – Birmingham Northfield
Majority: 2509 (5.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Mary Creagh – Wakefield
Majority: 2613 (6.1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives
 

Vernon Coaker – Gedling
Majority: 2986 (6.2 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Clive Efford – Eltham
Majority: 2693 (6.2 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Rob Flello - Stoke-on-Trent South
Majority: 2539 (6.5 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Susan Jones – Clwyd South
Majority: 2402 (6.8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Jim Cunningham – Coventry South
Majority: 3188 (7.3 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Jenny Chapman – Darlington
Majority: 3024 (7.6 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

David Hanson – Delyn
Majority: 2930 (7.7 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Gordon Marsden – Blackpool South
Majority: 2585 (8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Julie Cooper – Burnley
Majority: 3244 (8.1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Liberal Democrats

Mark Tami – Alyn & Deeside
Majority: 3343 (8.1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Nic Dakin – Scunthorpe
Majority: 3134 (8.5 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Kerry McCarthy – Bristol East
Majority: 3980 (8.6 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Paul Flynn – Newport West
Majority: 3510 (8.7 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Alan Whitehead - Southampton Test
Majority: 3810 (8.8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Neil Coyle – Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Majority: 4489 (8.8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Liberal Democrats

Lindsay Hoyle (Deputy speaker) – Chorley
Majority: 4530 (8.8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Helen Goodman – Bishop Auckland
Majority: 3508 (8.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Thangam Debbonaire – Bristol West
Majority: 5673 (8.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Green

Geoffrey Robinson – Coventry North West
Majority: 4509 (10 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservative

Graham Jones – Hyndburn
Majority: 4400 (10.2 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

David Crausby – Bolton North East
Majority: 4377 (10.2 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Ivan Lewis - Bury South
Majority: 3508 (8.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Liz McInnes – Heywood & Middleton
Majority: 5299 (10.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Ukip

Alison McGovern – Wirral South
Majority: 4599 (11 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Alan Meale – Mansfield
Majority: 5135 (11.3 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

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