Why, despite everything, the Lib Dems are still set to win Eastleigh

A new poll from Lord Ashcroft putting the Lib Dems five points ahead in the by-election shows that local issues continue to take precedence over national ones.

After one of the worst weekends of press coverage for the Lib Dems in recent history, the party will be relieved that it is still on course to win in Eastleigh on Thursday. The final poll of the campaign, conducted by Lord Ashcroft (profiled by Andrew Gimson in this week's NS), puts the Lib Dems on 33 per cent (+2), five points ahead of the Tories, who are down to six points to 28 per cent, with UKIP in third place on 21 per cent (+8) and Labour a distant fourth on 12 per cent (-7). The fieldwork took place between Friday and Sunday, so after the Rennard story broke, although it is worth noting that the most damaging front pages for the party didn't appear until Monday following Clegg's admission that he was aware of "indirect and non-specific concerns" about the Lib Dem peer. 

But even with this proviso, it appears unlikely that the scandal will swing the contest in the Tories' favour. The reason, as I suggested yesterday, is that local issues continue to take precedence over national ones. Ashcroft's poll shows that the most important factor in determining how people will vote is "getting the best local MP". Nearly half of all voters (45 per cent) and 65 per cent of Lib Dems cite this as the main influence on their decision. Significantly, then, the Lib Dems enjoy a 19-point lead on "understanding the Eastleigh constituency and representing local people in parliament", with 40 per cent of all voters and 90 per cent of Lib Dems awarding them this accolade. 

Also in the Lib Dems' favour is that a majority of voters (55 per cent), including 47 per cent of Conservative supporters, say that they expect the party to win, a factor that, as Ashcroft suggests, may heighten the attraction of "a nothing-to-lose vote for UKIP". But few ever got rich betting on by-elections, and the poll shows that the potential for an upset remains; a total of 27 per cent of voters remain undecided. The Tories, for whom defeat would be written up as a humiliating failure (even if, as the poll suggests, voters are unmoved by the Huhne and Rennard scandals), have every incentive to fight to the death. 

Nick Clegg and Liberal Democrat Eastleigh by-election candidate Mike Thornton visit the Ageas Bowl - home of Hampshire Cricket Club. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Which CLPs are nominating who in the 2016 Labour leadership contest?

Who is getting the most CLP nominations in the race to be Labour leader?

Jeremy Corbyn, the sitting Labour leader, has been challenged by Owen Smith, the MP for Pontypridd. Now that both are on the ballot, constituency Labour parties (CLPs) can give supporting nominations. Although they have no direct consequence on the race, they provide an early indication of how the candidates are doing in the country at large. While CLP meetings are suspended for the duration of the contest, they can meet to plan campaign sessions, prepare for by-elections, and to issue supporting nominations. 

Scottish local parties are organised around Holyrood constituencies, not Westminster constituencies. Some Westminster parties are amalgamated - where they have nominated as a bloc, we have counted them as their separate constituencies, with the exception of Northern Ireland, where Labour does not stand candidates. To avoid confusion, constitutencies with dual language names are listed in square [] brackets. If the constituency party nominated in last year's leadership race, that preference is indicated in italics.  In addition, we have listed the endorsements of trade unions and other affliates alongside the candidates' names.

Jeremy Corbyn (46)

Bournemouth East (did not nominate in 2015)

Bournemouth West (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Brent Central (nominated Jeremy Corbn in 2015)

Bristol East (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Cheltenham (did not nominate in 2015)

Chesterfield (did not nominate in 2015)

Chippenham (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Colchester (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Crewe and Nantwich (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Croydon Central (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Clwyd West (did not nominate in 2015)

Devizes (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

East Devon (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

East Surrey (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Erith and Thamesmead (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Folkestone & Hythe (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Grantham and Stamford (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Hampstead and Kilburn (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Harrow East (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Hastings & Rye (did not nominate in 2015)

Herefore and South Herefordshire (did not nominate in 2015)

Kensington & Chelsea (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Lancaster & Fleetwood (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Liverpool West Derby (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Leeds North West (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Morecambe and Lunesdale (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Milton Keynes North (did not nominate in 2015)

Milton Keynes South (did not nominate in 2015)

Old Bexley and Sidcup (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Newton Abbott (nominated Liz Kendall in 2015)

Newark (did not nominate in 2015)

North Somerset (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Pudsey (nominated Andy Bunrnham in 2015)

Reading West (did not nominate in 2015)

Reigate (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Romford (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Salisbury (did not nominate in 2015)

Southampton Test (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

South Cambridgeshire  (did not nominate in 2015)

South Thanet (did not nominate in 2015)

South West Bedfordshire (did not nominate in 2015)

Sutton & Cheam (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Sutton Coldfield (did not nominate in 2015)

Swansea West (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Tewkesbury (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Westmoreland and Lunesdale (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Wokingham (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Owen Smith (12)

Altrincham and Sale West (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Battersea (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Blaneau Gwent (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Bow and Bethnal Green (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Reading East (did not nominate in 2015)

Richmond Park (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Runnymede and Weybridge (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Streatham (nominated Liz Kendall in 2015)

Vauxhall (nominated Liz Kendall in 2015)

West Ham (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Westminster North (nominated Yvette Coooper in 2015)

Wimbledon