The Tories' EU poll bounce is over already - but it's no surprise

Tory MPs need to remember that just six per cent of voters name the EU as one of the most "important issues" facing Britain.

It looks the Tory poll bounce that followed David Cameron's EU referendum pledge was of the "dead cat" variety. The weekend polls showed Labour's lead had fallen to just six as the Conservatives' vote share rose to 35 per cent but by the middle of the week it was back at nine. Today's YouGov poll has the Labour lead at 12, back at the level seen before Cameron's speech. 

This will come as a surprise to some, but it shouldn't. As I noted on the day of Cameron's speech, while voters share the Tories' euroscepticism, they do not share their obsession with the subject. Polling by Ipsos MORI (see below) shows that just six per cent of voters regard the EU as one of the most "important issues" facing Britain. As Lord Ashcroft writes in a typically astute analysis on ConservativeHome, Cameron's pledge has "made Tories feel better about being Tories" but it has not "changed anybody's mind". 

How important is the EU to voters? Not very

This isn't to say that Cameron was wrong to make his pledge. It has undoubtedly won some votes back from Ukip and shored up eurosceptic Conservative support. Rather, it is to say that Tory MPs need to remember that the outcome of the next election will be determined by growth, jobs and public services - the issues that matter to most voters. So long as growth remains non-existent and wages remain below inflation, the Tories will struggle to advance. 

With Labour back in front, Ed Miliband is in a stronger position to argue that his decision not to match Cameron's referendum pledge was the right one. While the Tories bang on about Europe, he wants to bang on about growth. Morever, as Raf noted in a prescient post, Miliband doesn't want the early years of a Labour government to be dominated by an EU referendum.

Conventional wisdom suggested that Miliband's referendum stance would prove disastrous for Labour - and, once again, he was right to reject conventional wisdom. 

David Cameron delivers his speech on the UK's relationship with the EU at Bloomberg's headquarters in London. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Donald Trump vs Barack Obama: How the inauguration speeches compared

We compared the two presidents on trade, foreign affairs and climate change – so you (really, really) don't have to.

After watching Donald Trump's inaugural address, what better way to get rid of the last few dregs of hope than by comparing what he said with Barack Obama's address from 2009? 

Both thanked the previous President, with Trump calling the Obamas "magnificent", and pledged to reform Washington, but the comparison ended there. 

Here is what each of them said: 

On American jobs

Obama:

The state of our economy calls for action, bold and swift.  And we will act, not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth.  We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together.  We'll restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality and lower its cost.  We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories.  And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age.

Trump:

For many decades we've enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry, subsidized the armies of other countries while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military.

One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores with not even a thought about the millions and millions of American workers that were left behind.

Obama had a plan for growth. Trump just blames the rest of the world...

On global warming

Obama:

With old friends and former foes, we'll work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet.

Trump:

On the Middle East:

Obama:

To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society's ills on the West, know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. 

Trump:

We will re-enforce old alliances and form new ones and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate completely from the face of the earth.

On “greatness”

Obama:

In reaffirming the greatness of our nation we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned.

Trump:

America will start winning again, winning like never before.

 

On trade

Obama:

This is the journey we continue today.  We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth.  Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began.  Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week, or last month, or last year.  Our capacity remains undiminished.  

Trump:

We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our product, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs.

Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength. I will fight for you with every breath in my body, and I will never ever let you down.

Stephanie Boland is digital assistant at the New Statesman. She tweets at @stephanieboland