The public don't support further welfare cuts

A new poll shows that 72 per cent of voters want welfare spending to be increased or frozen.

George Osborne has long assumed that you can't cut welfare spending too hard. The Chancellor reduced benefits by £18bn in the 2010 Spending Review and by another £3.7bn in last year's Autumn Statement after the Lib Dems vetoed his preferred figure of £10bn. The common belief among the Tories is that there is no area of spending the voters would rather see shrunk.

But a new ComRes/ITV News poll on the government's spending plans suggests this assumption is mistaken. It found that a majority of people either want welfare spending to be increased (43 per cent) or frozen (29 per cent), with just 27 per cent in favour of further cuts. Welfare is the fourth most popular area for government spending, with transport, defence, public sector pensions, local government and international development all viewed as more deserving of cuts. 

The most popular area for spending is the NHS, a vindication of Osborne's decision to protect the service from cuts. Just five per cent of voters believe health spending should be reduced and 71 per cent believe it should be increased. 

Ahead of this summer's Spending Review, which will set departmental spending limits for 2015-16, the poll should strengthen the cause of Danny Alexander and Iain Duncan Smith who have formed a united front against further welfare cuts. Those such as the Defence Secretary, Philip Hammond, who have argued that their departments should be protected, with the burden of cuts instead falling on welfare, will no longer be able to claim that they have the public on their side. 

George Osborne walks into Downing Street to attend a security meeting with US Vice President Joe Biden on February 5, 2013 in London. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.