Morning Call: pick of the papers

Ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

  1. What a difference an A makes to Osborne (Sunday Times)
    No wonder the chancellor’s pallor was even more evident than usual, writes Dominic Lawson.
  2. The BBC rot starts at the top, with the elusive Lord Patten (Sunday Telegraph)
    The chairman emerges smelling of roses, even as he sticks the knife into his juniors, says Peter Oborne.
  3. Revealed: George Osborne's master plan for reviving the UK economy (Observer)
    Tory MPs are agitating for a dramatic budget to transform their party's fortunes. They will be disappointed, writes Andrew Rawnsley.
  4. Only the Tories have a grip on energy (Sunday Telegraph)
    The voters of Eastleigh have a splendid opportunity to send a message that green fundamentalism is unaffordable, says the Sunday Telegraph in a leader column.
  5. In Italy, Illusion Is the Only Reality (New York Times)
    What is never countenanced in Italy is the notion that one has made very serious mistakes, writes Tim Parks.
  6. The harsh lives of the forgotten rural poor (Observer)
    Urban poverty is well documented, but those suffering in the countryside are almost invisible, says Tobias Jones.
  7. Don’t hang the jury, even if it’s hopeless (Sunday Times)
    Any who think the criminal law would be better off without juries should visit countries that have never had them, writes Geoffrey Roberston.
  8. Forget the triple A: It's the NUM (National Union of Ministers) that terrifies George (Mail on Sunday)
    Osborne's main enemy are Tory Ministers who don’t have an ideological objection to more cuts, but simply don’t want to have to make them to their own budgets, writes James Forsythe.
  9. The BBC must hack away the slack (Independent on Sunday)
    After the ghastly revelations of the past months, it's hard to believe the BBC still hasn't learnt the basic rules of PR, says Janet Street Porter.
  10. Libel law of diminishing returns (Sunday Times)
    The unamended Defamation Bill must be passed tomorrow, writes the Sunday Times in a leader article.
Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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