The latest ComRes/Independent on Sunday poll is a disappointing one for Labour. It puts the party's lead at just five points, unchanged since last month's survey, which showed a bounce for the Tories following David Cameron's promise of an EU referendum. Labour is on 36 per cent (-1), with the Tories on 31 per cent (-1), UKIP on 14 per cent (+1) and the Lib Dems on eight per cent (-3).

David Cameron and George Osborne have also increased their lead on the economy from one point to nine points. Twenty seven per cent of people say they trust Cameron and Osborne "to make the right decisions about the economy" and fifty one per cent say they do not, compared to 20 per cent who say they trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls and 55 per cent who say they do not.

Midway through the parliament and with economic growth non-existent, one would expect Labour to be performing better. Governments tend to gain support in the run-up to a general election (as Gordon Brown's did), so the party needs a much greater cushion than five points.

This is, of course, just one poll; an ICM/Guardian survey earlier this week put the party's lead at 12 points and the most recent YouGov poll put it at 11. But the ComRes survey is a good example of why most shadow ministers privately think another hung parliament is the most likely outcome of the next election.