How Labour would ensure the rich don't benefit from a 10p tax rate

The party plans to adjust thresholds elsewhere in the tax system, so that higher-earners don't gain from a lower starting rate of income tax.

One important detail in Ed Miliband's speech largely overlooked by the media is that only basic rate taxpayers would gain from the return of the 10p tax rate. Without this proviso, the policy would be more expensive, since higher-rate taxpayers would also benefit, as well as regressive, since the largest gains would flow to the richest households (as in the case of increasing the personal allowance). Miliband has no intention of handing a tax cut to millionaires by allowing them to pay a marginal rate of just 10p on their first £1,000 of earnings above the personal allowance. 

In order to ensure that only basic rate taxpayers benefit from the policy, I'm told by a Labour source that the party would look at adjusting thresholds elsewhere in the income tax system or at tapering away the gains for higher-earners. This could, for instance, mean a lower starting rate for the 40p rate (a policy pursued by George Osborne, who reduced it from £42,475 to £41,450 in last year's Budget) and the 45p rate. Another potential model is the measure introduced by Alistair Darling in the 2009 Budget. The-then Chancellor announced that the personal allowance would be tapered away at a rate of £1 for every £2 of income above £100,000 (meaning it is now withdrawn completely at around £116,000). George Osborne has wisely chosen not to reverse this brilliant act of stealth redistribution.  

 

Ed Miliband used his speech on the economy to call for the reintroduction of the 10p tax rate, funded by a mansion tax on houses worth more than £2m. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Shock Wales YouGov poll shows that Labour's Ukip nightmare is coming true

The fear that voting Ukip would prove a gateway drug for Labour voters appears to be being borne out. 

An astonishing new poll for the Cardiff University Governance Centre and ITV Cymru shows a historic result: the Conservatives ending a 167-year wait for an election victory in Wales.

The numbers that matter:

Conservatives: 40 per cent

Labour: 30 per cent

Plaid Cymru: 13 per cent

Liberal Democrats: 8 per cent

Ukip: 6 per cent

Others: 3 per cent

And for context, here’s what happened in 2015:

Labour 36.9 per cent

Conservatives 27.2 per cent

Ukip 13.6 per cent

Plaid Cymru 12.1 per cent

Liberal Democrat 6.5 per cent

Others 2.6 per cent

There’s a lot to note here. If repeated at a general election, this would mean Labour losing an election in Wales for the first time since the First World War. In addition to losing the popular vote, they would shed ten seats to the Tories.

We're talking about a far more significant reverse than merely losing the next election. 

I don’t want to detract from how bad the Labour performance is in a vacuum – they have lost 6.9 per cent of their vote on 2015, in any case the worst election performance for Labour in Wales since the rout of 1983.  But the really terrifying thing for Labour is not what is happening to their own vote, though that is pretty terrifying.

It’s what’s happened to the Conservative vote – growing in almost every direction. There is some direct Labour to Tory slippage. But the big problem is the longtime fear of Labour MPs – that voting for Ukip would be a gateway drug to voting for the mainstream right – appears to be being realised. Don't forget that most of the Ukip vote in Wales is drawn from people who voted Labour in 2010. (The unnoticed shift of the 2010-5 parliament in a lot of places was a big chunk of the Labour 2010 vote went to Ukip, but was replaced by a chunk of the 2010 Liberal Democrat vote.) 

If repeated across the United Kingdom, the Tory landslide will be larger than the 114 majority suggested by the polls and a simple national swing.

As I’ve said before, polls are useful, but they are not the be-all and end-all. The bad news is that this very much supports the pattern at elections since the referendum – Labour falling back, the Tories losing some votes to the Liberal Democrats but more than making up the loss thanks to the collapse of Ukip.

The word from Welsh Labour is that these figures “look about right” at least as far as the drop in the Labour vote, though of course they have no idea what is going on with their opponents’ vote share. As for the Conservatives, their early experiences on the doorstep do show the Ukip vote collapsing to their benefit.

One Labour MP said to me a few days again that they knew their vote was holding up – what they didn’t know was what was happening to their opponents. That’s particularly significant if you have a “safe seat” but less than 50 per cent of the vote.

Wales has local elections throughout the country on 4 May. They should provide an early sign whether these world-shaking figures are really true. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

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