Cameron's EU budget deal is bad for Britain and for the eurozone recovery

Spending on the bloated Common Agricultural Policy has been increased, while spending on infrastructure and other growth projects has been cut.

David Cameron was right to call for an EU budget cut. Agricultural payments and regional funds have been bloated and badly spent for years. But the deal he looks to have secured is bad for Britain and bad for the eurozone recovery.

Last year, IPPR called for a 25 per cent cut in the EU budget with reductions to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the repatriation of regional funds for rich countries. We suggested that Cameron put the UK rebate on the table in order to deliver this 'grand bargain'. Our calculations showed that the UK would be better off as a result, with a lower net contribution than at present. But in order to secure a headline cut in the overall size of the budget, to assuage eurosceptic demands, the Prime Minister appears to have taken a backward step on the road to European recovery.

The British rebate has been preserved in its entirety but reports suggest that the UK (along with all rich countries aside from Italy) will end up making a bigger net contribution. This is partly legitimate because cohesion funds for poorer EU countries will increase. But it is also because €27bn of cuts have come, not from the inefficient and distortive CAP budget, which has increased by €9bn, but from the funds for competitiveness and growth.

This budget includes funding for research and development, transport and energy infrastructure, which create jobs in the short-term as construction takes place and growth in the long-term as they improve the productive capacity of the economy. For example, the Connecting Europe Facility, which is intended to increase the efficiency of energy transmission and therefore bring down bills, has been cut from €9.1bn to €5.1bn. 

By seeking a favourable headline from the already sceptical British press, the PM is selling Britain a lemon.

David Cameron and his entourage arrive back at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. Photograph: Getty Images.

Will Straw was Director of Britain Stronger In Europe, the cross-party campaign to keep Britain in the European Union. 

Photo: Getty
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Who will win in Stoke-on-Trent?

Labour are the favourites, but they could fall victim to a shock in the Midlands constituency.  

The resignation of Tristram Hunt as MP for Stoke-on-Central has triggered a by-election in the safe Labour seat of Stoke on Trent Central. That had Westminster speculating about the possibility of a victory for Ukip, which only intensified once Paul Nuttall, the party’s leader, was installed as the candidate.

If Nuttall’s message that the Labour Party has lost touch with its small-town and post-industrial heartlands is going to pay dividends at the ballot box, there can hardly be a better set of circumstances than this: the sitting MP has quit to take up a well-paid job in London, and although  the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs voted to block Brexit, the well-advertised divisions in that party over the vote should help Ukip.

But Labour started with a solid lead – it is always more useful to talk about percentages, not raw vote totals – of 16 points in 2015, with the two parties of the right effectively tied in second and third place. Just 33 votes separated Ukip in second from the third-placed Conservatives.

There was a possible – but narrow – path to victory for Ukip that involved swallowing up the Conservative vote, while Labour shed votes in three directions: to the Liberal Democrats, to Ukip, and to abstention.

But as I wrote at the start of the contest, Ukip were, in my view, overwritten in their chances of winning the seat. We talk a lot about Labour’s problem appealing to “aspirational” voters in Westminster, but less covered, and equally important, is Ukip’s aspiration problem.

For some people, a vote for Ukip is effectively a declaration that you live in a dump. You can have an interesting debate about whether it was particularly sympathetic of Ken Clarke to brand that party’s voters as “elderly male people who have had disappointing lives”, but that view is not just confined to pro-European Conservatives. A great number of people, in Stoke and elsewhere, who are sympathetic to Ukip’s positions on immigration, international development and the European Union also think that voting Ukip is for losers.

That always made making inroads into the Conservative vote harder than it looks. At the risk of looking very, very foolish in six days time, I found it difficult to imagine why Tory voters in Hanley would take the risk of voting Ukip. As I wrote when Nuttall announced his candidacy, the Conservatives were, in my view, a bigger threat to Labour than Ukip.

Under Theresa May, almost every move the party has made has been designed around making inroads into the Ukip vote and that part of the Labour vote that is sympathetic to Ukip. If the polls are to be believed, she’s succeeding nationally, though even on current polling, the Conservatives wouldn’t have enough to take Stoke on Trent Central.

Now Theresa May has made a visit to the constituency. Well, seeing as the government has a comfortable majority in the House of Commons, it’s not as if the Prime Minister needs to find time to visit the seat, particularly when there is another, easier battle down the road in the shape of the West Midlands mayoral election.

But one thing is certain: the Conservatives wouldn’t be sending May down if they thought that they were going to do worse than they did in 2015.

Parties can be wrong of course. The Conservatives knew that they had found a vulnerable spot in the last election as far as a Labour deal with the SNP was concerned. They thought that vulnerable spot was worth 15 to 20 seats. They gained 27 from the Liberal Democrats and a further eight from Labour.  Labour knew they would underperform public expectations and thought they’d end up with around 260 to 280 seats. They ended up with 232.

Nevertheless, Theresa May wouldn’t be coming down to Stoke if CCHQ thought that four days later, her party was going to finish fourth. And if the Conservatives don’t collapse, anyone betting on Ukip is liable to lose their shirt. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.