Cameron rebuked by UK Statistics Authority over debt lies

After the PM falsely claimed the coalition "was paying down Britain’s debts", the UK Statistics Authority points out that the national debt has risen by £300bn.

Last week I reported that Labour's Rachel Reeves had issued a complaint to the UK Statistics Authority after David Cameron falsely stated in a Conservative Party political broadcast that the coalition "was paying down Britain’s debts".

Andrew Dilnot, the chair of the stats authority, has now replied to Reeves, confirming that there was no basis for Cameron's claim. He rightly points out that the national debt has risen from £811.3bn, or 55.3 per cent of GDP, to £1,111.4bn, or 70.7 per cent of GDP, since the coalition entered office. This is hardly surprising. For debt to fall, the government would have to run a budget surplus, something unthinkable at a time of economic stagnation. But that hardly excuses Cameron's myth-making. The PM doesn't need to be told the difference between the deficit and the debt (although Dilnot helpfully reminds him anyway), he just chooses to use the latter as a synoym for the former because it's a more familiar concept to voters.

It's not the first time that the PM has had his knuckles rapped by the nation's number-crunchers. Last year, the Conservatives were forced to correct their claim to have increased real-terms spending on the NHS "in each of the last two years". 

After complaining for years about Gordon Brown's manipulation of economic statistics, the government came to power promising a new regime of transparency. But Cameron's willful distortion of the facts on debt and NHS spending shows he's been unable to hold himself to this standard.

So it's just as well that Dilnot assures us, "I am copying this to the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff at 10 Downing Street".

You can read his reply to Reeves in full below. 

Letter to Rachel Reeves by

David Cameron leaves 10 Downing Street in London, on January 30, 2012. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Voters are turning against Brexit but the Lib Dems aren't benefiting

Labour's pro-Brexit stance is not preventing it from winning the support of Remainers. Will that change?

More than a year after the UK voted for Brexit, there has been little sign of buyer's remorse. The public, including around a third of Remainers, are largely of the view that the government should "get on with it".

But as real wages are squeezed (owing to the Brexit-linked inflationary spike) there are tentative signs that the mood is changing. In the event of a second referendum, an Opinium/Observer poll found, 47 per cent would vote Remain, compared to 44 per cent for Leave. Support for a repeat vote is also increasing. Forty one per cent of the public now favour a second referendum (with 48 per cent opposed), compared to 33 per cent last December. 

The Liberal Democrats have made halting Brexit their raison d'être. But as public opinion turns, there is no sign they are benefiting. Since the election, Vince Cable's party has yet to exceed single figures in the polls, scoring a lowly 6 per cent in the Opinium survey (down from 7.4 per cent at the election). 

What accounts for this disparity? After their near-extinction in 2015, the Lib Dems remain either toxic or irrelevant to many voters. Labour, by contrast, despite its pro-Brexit stance, has hoovered up Remainers (55 per cent back Jeremy Corbyn's party). 

In some cases, this reflects voters' other priorities. Remainers are prepared to support Labour on account of the party's stances on austerity, housing and education. Corbyn, meanwhile, is a eurosceptic whose internationalism and pro-migration reputation endear him to EU supporters. Other Remainers rewarded Labour MPs who voted against Article 50, rebelling against the leadership's stance. 

But the trend also partly reflects ignorance. By saying little on the subject of Brexit, Corbyn and Labour allowed Remainers to assume the best. Though there is little evidence that voters will abandon Corbyn over his EU stance, the potential exists.

For this reason, the proposal of a new party will continue to recur. By challenging Labour over Brexit, without the toxicity of Lib Dems, it would sharpen the choice before voters. Though it would not win an election, a new party could force Corbyn to soften his stance on Brexit or to offer a second referendum (mirroring Ukip's effect on the Conservatives).

The greatest problem for the project is that it lacks support where it counts: among MPs. For reasons of tribalism and strategy, there is no emergent "Gang of Four" ready to helm a new party. In the absence of a new convulsion, the UK may turn against Brexit without the anti-Brexiteers benefiting. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.