One referendum that is guaranteed to take place in is that on Scottish independence in 2014 and the "no" campaign (or, as it prefers to be known, Better Together) is in an ever-stronger position. The 2012 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, the results of which were released today, shows that support for independence has fallen to just 23 per cent, down from 32 per cent last year and the joint-lowest level since devolution.
Most notable is that backing for independence is now at a lower level than it was when the SNP came to power in 2007, a reminder that many voters support the party in spite of its support for secession, rather than because of it. Before Alex Salmond became First Minister, support for independence averaged 30 per cent, since then it has averaged 26 per cent.
One question that some have posed is whether David Cameron's support for an in/out EU referendum will work to the SNP's advantage. Polls frequently show that Scottish voters are more supportive of EU membership than their English counterparts. Salmond declared yesterday:
This completely changes the nature of the debate in Scotland. The Westminster parties have consistently claimed that a referendum on Scotland’s independence causes uncertainty.
It is now clear the persistent undercurrent of Tory Euroscepticism poses the biggest threat to Scotland’s position in the EU and has now helped to hole below the waterline the baseless scaremongering of Alistair Darling and the rest of the No campaign.
Yet given that just five per cent of Scottish voters regard the EU as one of the most "important issues" facing Britain and the uncertainty over whether Scotland would automatically inherit the UK's EU membership, it is rather optimistic of Salmond to assume this will aid his cause.