Support for Scottish independence falls to new low

Just 23 per cent of voters now support independence, the lowest level since devolution in 1999.

One referendum that is guaranteed to take place in is that on Scottish independence in 2014 and the "no" campaign (or, as it prefers to be known, Better Together) is in an ever-stronger position. The 2012 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, the results of which were released today, shows that support for independence has fallen to just 23 per cent, down from 32 per cent last year and the joint-lowest level since devolution.

Most notable is that backing for independence is now at a lower level than it was when the SNP came to power in 2007, a reminder that many voters support the party in spite of its support for secession, rather than because of it. Before Alex Salmond became First Minister, support for independence averaged 30 per cent, since then it has averaged 26 per cent. 

One question that some have posed is whether David Cameron's support for an in/out EU referendum will work to the SNP's advantage. Polls frequently show that Scottish voters are more supportive of EU membership than their English counterparts. Salmond declared yesterday:

 

This completely changes the nature of the debate in Scotland. The Westminster parties have consistently claimed that a referendum on Scotland’s independence causes uncertainty.

It is now clear the persistent undercurrent of Tory Euroscepticism poses the biggest threat to Scotland’s position in the EU and has now helped to hole below the waterline the baseless scaremongering of Alistair Darling and the rest of the No campaign.

Yet given that just five per cent of Scottish voters regard the EU as one of the most "important issues" facing Britain and the uncertainty over whether Scotland would automatically inherit the UK's EU membership, it is rather optimistic of Salmond to assume this will aid his cause. 

Support for Scottish independence has averaged just 26 per cent since Alex Salmond became First Minister. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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To stop Jeremy Corbyn, I am giving my second preference to Andy Burnham

The big question is whether Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper will face Jeremy in the final round of this election.

Voting is now underway in the Labour leadership election. There can be no doubt that Jeremy Corbyn is the frontrunner, but the race isn't over yet.

I know from conversations across the country that many voters still haven't made up their mind.

Some are drawn to Jeremy's promises of a new Jerusalem and endless spending, but worried that these endless promises, with no credibility, will only serve to lose us the next general election.

Others are certain that a Jeremy victory is really a win for Cameron and Osborne, but don't know who is the best alternative to vote for.

I am supporting Liz Kendall and will give her my first preference. But polling data is brutally clear: the big question is whether Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper will face Jeremy in the final round of this election.

Andy can win. He can draw together support from across the party, motivated by his history of loyalty to the Labour movement, his passionate appeal for unity in fighting the Tories, and the findings of every poll of the general public in this campaign that he is best placed candidate to win the next general election.

Yvette, in contrast, would lose to Jeremy Corbyn and lose heavily. Evidence from data collected by all the campaigns – except (apparently) Yvette's own – shows this. All publicly available polling shows the same. If Andy drops out of the race, a large part of the broad coalition he attracts will vote for Jeremy. If Yvette is knocked out, her support firmly swings behind Andy.

We will all have our views about the different candidates, but the real choice for our country is between a Labour government and the ongoing rightwing agenda of the Tories.

I am in politics to make a real difference to the lives of my constituents. We are all in the Labour movement to get behind the beliefs that unite all in our party.

In the crucial choice we are making right now, I have no doubt that a vote for Jeremy would be the wrong choice – throwing away the next election, and with it hope for the next decade.

A vote for Yvette gets the same result – her defeat by Jeremy, and Jeremy's defeat to Cameron and Osborne.

In the crucial choice between Yvette and Andy, Andy will get my second preference so we can have the best hope of keeping the fight for our party alive, and the best hope for the future of our country too.

Tom Blenkinsop is the Labour MP for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland