The poorest and the disabled are hit hardest by the benefit cuts

The government's Impact Assessment shows that the poorest 10 per cent of households lose the most from the decision to raise benefits by just 1 per cent.

Just a few hours before MPs started debating the coalition's Welfare Uprating Bill, which will impose a cap of 1 per cent of benefit increases for the next three years, the government finally released its Impact Assessment (IA) of the legislation.

The document confirms that the poorest will be hit hardest by the decision not to raise benefits in line with inflation. As the table below shows, the poorest tenth of households lose the most in real terms (2 per cent of net income a week), while the second poorest tenth lose the most in cash terms (£5 a week).

The assessment also shows that, contrary to the government's assurances, the disabled will be affected. In fact, households with a disabled member are more likely to lose out than non-disabled households (34 per cent compared to 27 per cent). This is because, in the words of the IA, "those who report themselves as being disabled are more likely to qualify for those benefits which are affected by the policy change". Given this finding, perhaps it's not surprising that the Department for Work and Pensions waited until the last possible moment to release its assessment.

We also learn that lone parents will lose more than any other family type (£5 a week), since "they have a lower employment rate than average and also often qualify for in-work support", that women are more likely to be affected than men (33 per cent compared to 29 per cent) and that, in total, 30 per cent of all households will be affected.

Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith will defend the government's Welfare Uprating Bill in the House of Commons today. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Paul Nuttall is like his party: sad, desperate and finished

The party hope if they can survive until March 2019, they will grow strong off disillusionment with Brexit. They may not make it until then. 

It’s a measure of how far Ukip have fallen that while Theresa May faced a grilling over her social care U-Turn and Jeremy Corbyn was called to account over his past, the opening sections of Andrew Neill’s interview with Paul Nuttall was about the question of whether or not his party has a future.

The blunt truth is that Ukip faces a battering in this election. They will be blown away in the seats they have put up a candidate in and have pre-emptively retreated from numerous contests across the country.

A party whose leader in Wales once said that climate change was “ridiculous” is now the victim of climate change itself. With Britain heading out of the European Union and Theresa May in Downing Street, it’s difficult to work out what the pressing question in public life to which Ukip is the answer.

Their quest for relevance isn’t helped by Paul Nuttall, who at times tonight cast an unwittingly comic figure. Pressing his case for Ukip’s burka ban, he said earnestly: “For [CCTV] to work, you have to see people’s faces.” It was if he had intended to pick up Nigel Farage’s old dogwhistle and instead put a kazoo to his lips.

Remarks that are, written down, offensive, just carried a stench of desperation. Nuttall’s policy prescriptions – a noun, a verb, and the most rancid comment underneath a Mail article – came across as a cry for attention. Small wonder that senior figures in Ukip expect Nuttall to face a move on his position, though they also expect that he will see off any attempt to remove him from his crown.

But despite his poor performance, Ukip might not be dead yet. There was a gleam of strategy amid the froth from Nuttall in the party’s pledge to oppose any continuing payment to Brussels as part of the Brexit deal, something that May and Corbyn have yet to rule out.

If May does manage to make it back to Downing Street on 8 June, the gap between campaign rhetoric – we’ll have the best Brexit, France will pay for it – and government policy – we’ll pay a one-off bill and continuing contributions if need be – will be fertile territory for Ukip, if they can survive as a going concern politically and financially, until March 2019.

On tonight’s performance, they’ll need a better centre-forward than Paul Nuttall if they are to make it that far. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

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