No early poll bounce for the Tories from Cameron's EU speech

First poll since Cameron's EU referendum pledge shows Labour's lead has risen two points to 12.

One of the hopes among the Tories is that David Cameron's promise of an EU referendum, like his "veto" of the EU fiscal compact in December 2011, will win the party a poll bounce. This is not just because it could persuade those eurosceptic voters who currently support Ukip or who "don't know" how they'd vote to back the Conservatives but also because it could lead swing voters to view Cameron as a strong and decisive leader. 

However, the first YouGov poll since the Prime Minister's speech, the fieldwork for which was conducted between 5pm on Tuesday and 5pm yesterday, shows no sign of an early boost for the Tories. Instead, support for Labour has risen by two points to 43 per cent, while the Tories are unchanged on 31 per cent. We will, of course, need to wait until the weekend polls for a clear picture of what effect, if any, Cameron's speech has had on the Conservatives' standing. 

But given how well trailed the speech was and the favourable coverage it received yesterday morning from Fleet Street, there will be some Tories disappointed that there has been no early shift in support. However, as I explained yesterday, it would not be surprising if Cameron's speech failed to move the polls. At present, just six per cent of voters regard the EU as one of the most "important issues" facing Britain. The news of Cameron's referendum pledge was only the tenth most-read story on the BBC website yesterday. To win the next election, the Tories need to talk about growth, jobs, public services and crime - the issues that actually matter to most people. Now let's see what the numbers look like after the weekend.

David Cameron delivers his speech on the UK's relationship with the EU at Bloomberg's headquarters in London. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Michael Gove definitely didn't betray anyone, says Michael Gove

What's a disagreement among friends?

Michael Gove is certainly not a traitor and he thinks Theresa May is absolutely the best leader of the Conservative party.

That's according to the cast out Brexiteer, who told the BBC's World At One life on the back benches has given him the opportunity to reflect on his mistakes. 

He described Boris Johnson, his one-time Leave ally before he decided to run against him for leader, as "phenomenally talented". 

Asked whether he had betrayed Johnson with his surprise leadership bid, Gove protested: "I wouldn't say I stabbed him in the back."

Instead, "while I intially thought Boris was the right person to be Prime Minister", he later came to the conclusion "he wasn't the right person to be Prime Minister at that point".

As for campaigning against the then-PM David Cameron, he declared: "I absolutely reject the idea of betrayal." Instead, it was a "disagreement" among friends: "Disagreement among friends is always painful."

Gove, who up to July had been a government minister since 2010, also found time to praise the person in charge of hiring government ministers, Theresa May. 

He said: "With the benefit of hindsight and the opportunity to spend some time on the backbenches reflecting on some of the mistakes I've made and some of the judgements I've made, I actually think that Theresa is the right leader at the right time. 

"I think that someone who took the position she did during the referendum is very well placed both to unite the party and lead these negotiations effectively."

Gove, who told The Times he was shocked when Cameron resigned after the Brexit vote, had backed Johnson for leader.

However, at the last minute he announced his candidacy, and caused an infuriated Johnson to pull his own campaign. Gove received just 14 per cent of the vote in the final contest, compared to 60.5 per cent for May. 


Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.