Is David Miliband set for a shadow cabinet return in 2014?

The former foreign secretary "is beginning to give serious thought" to a comeback.

When David Miliband was last asked whether he could join the Labour shadow cabinet before the next election, he replied: "You never know". Today's Times (£) suggests that the former foreign secretary, who guest-edited the NS last year, "is beginning to give serious thought to a return to the front line." The paper reports that "an emerging scenario would see him return to the Labour front bench next spring."

The return of the elder Miliband was originally seen as a means of shoring up support for Ed among the party's Blairites, but Miliband's recent political successes (the Budget, his "one nation" conference speech, the Corby by-election) mean this is no longer a factor. He would now be able to bring his brother back from a position of strength. The return of the former foreign secretary would add heft to a shadow cabinet that is short of big hitters. Since retiring to the backbenches, Miliband's interventions - on the economy, on the NHS, on multiculturalism and on the crisis of the European centre-left - have been among the most impressive from any Labour MP.

The question remains "what job would he do?" After Ed Balls revealed that Ed Miliband had refused to guarantee his position, the Times reminds us that the Labour leader has twice sounded out his brother about becoming shadow chancellor, once before appointing Alan Johnson and once before appointing Balls. However, it is hard to see Miliband moving Balls, whose stock remains high, before the next election. Having served as foreign secretary for three years, Miliband will have no desire to shadow William Hague (a brief Douglas Alexander has performed admirably in). More likely is his return in some election campaign role.

While the Tories now rightly recognise that they underestimated Ed Miliband, the return of David, whom many admire, would further unsettle them. For this reason, it is a weapon that Labour may well deploy in 2014.

David Miliband is considering a return to the Labour frontbench next spring. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Donald Trump's healthcare failure could be to his advantage

The appearance of weakness is less electorally damaging than actually removing healthcare from millions of people.

Good morning. Is it all over for Donald Trump? His approval ratings have cratered to below 40%. Now his attempt to dismantle Barack Obama's healthcare reforms have hit serious resistance from within the Republican Party, adding to the failures and retreats of his early days in office.

The problem for the GOP is that their opposition to Obamacare had more to do with the word "Obama" than the word "care". The previous President opted for a right-wing solution to the problem of the uninsured in a doomed attempt to secure bipartisan support for his healthcare reform. The politician with the biggest impact on the structures of the Affordable Care Act is Mitt Romney.

But now that the Republicans control all three branches of government they are left in a situation where they have no alternative to Obamacare that wouldn't either a) shred conservative orthodoxies on healthcare or b) create numerous and angry losers in their constituencies. The difficulties for Trump's proposal is that it does a bit of both.

Now the man who ran on his ability to cut a deal has been forced to make a take it or leave plea to Republicans in the House of Representatives: vote for this plan or say goodbye to any chance of repealing Obamacare.

But that's probably good news for Trump. The appearance of weakness and failure is less electorally damaging than actually succeeding in removing healthcare from millions of people, including people who voted for Trump.

Trump won his first term because his own negatives as a candidate weren't quite enough to drag him down on a night when he underperformed Republican candidates across the country. The historical trends all make it hard for a first-term incumbent to lose. So far, Trump's administration is largely being frustrated by the Republican establishment though he is succeeding in leveraging the Presidency for the benefit of his business empire.

But it may be that in the failure to get anything done he succeeds in once again riding Republican coattails to victory in 2020.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.