Is David Miliband set for a shadow cabinet return in 2014?

The former foreign secretary "is beginning to give serious thought" to a comeback.

When David Miliband was last asked whether he could join the Labour shadow cabinet before the next election, he replied: "You never know". Today's Times (£) suggests that the former foreign secretary, who guest-edited the NS last year, "is beginning to give serious thought to a return to the front line." The paper reports that "an emerging scenario would see him return to the Labour front bench next spring."

The return of the elder Miliband was originally seen as a means of shoring up support for Ed among the party's Blairites, but Miliband's recent political successes (the Budget, his "one nation" conference speech, the Corby by-election) mean this is no longer a factor. He would now be able to bring his brother back from a position of strength. The return of the former foreign secretary would add heft to a shadow cabinet that is short of big hitters. Since retiring to the backbenches, Miliband's interventions - on the economy, on the NHS, on multiculturalism and on the crisis of the European centre-left - have been among the most impressive from any Labour MP.

The question remains "what job would he do?" After Ed Balls revealed that Ed Miliband had refused to guarantee his position, the Times reminds us that the Labour leader has twice sounded out his brother about becoming shadow chancellor, once before appointing Alan Johnson and once before appointing Balls. However, it is hard to see Miliband moving Balls, whose stock remains high, before the next election. Having served as foreign secretary for three years, Miliband will have no desire to shadow William Hague (a brief Douglas Alexander has performed admirably in). More likely is his return in some election campaign role.

While the Tories now rightly recognise that they underestimated Ed Miliband, the return of David, whom many admire, would further unsettle them. For this reason, it is a weapon that Labour may well deploy in 2014.

David Miliband is considering a return to the Labour frontbench next spring. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

0800 7318496