Cameron commits to TV debates in 2015

After being accused by Labour of "running scared", Cameron says "we should go on having" TV debates.

After David Cameron declared that the TV debates "took all the life" out of the 2010 election campaign, there was much debate about whether he was, in the words of Labour, "running scared". Cameron told a press gallery lunch: "I think we could learn from last time. I have got an open mind and there is still two and a half years to go before we have to really think about it." The debates are viewed by Conservative strategists as one reason for the party's failure to win a majority in 2010.

But asked by Sky News's Adam Boulton at this afternoon's press conference with Nick Clegg whether he was in favour of the debates, Cameron was less equivocal. "I'm in favour of them, I think they are good and I think we should go on having them, and I will play my part in trying to make that happen," he said. After those words it will be harder for Cameron to avoid the debates in 2015, but the phrase "trying to make them happen" does leave him with some wriggle room.

One question that will arise is whether Nigel Farage should be included in the debates. If UKIP continue to poll at their current level and perform well in the European elections in 2014 (potentially even winning them) and future by-elections, Farage will push for a place. But since all three of the main parties have a mutual interest in avoiding the inclusion of "none of the above" candidate, it is hard to see his wish being granted.

David Cameron said of the TV debates: "I think they're good, I think we should go on having them". Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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What does François Bayrou's endorsement of Emmanuel Macron mean for the French presidential race?

The support of the perennial candidate for President will boost Macron's morale but won't transform his electoral standing. 

François Bayrou, the leader of the centrist Democratic Movement and a candidate for the French presidency in 2007 and 2012, has endorsed Emmanuel Macron’s bid for the presidency.

What does it mean for the presidential race?  Under the rules of the French electoral system, if no candidate secures more than half the vote in the first round, the top two go through to a run-off.

Since 2013, Marine Le Pen has consistently led in the first round before going down to defeat in the second, regardless of the identity of her opponents, according to the polls.

However, national crises – such as terror attacks or the recent riots following the brutal arrest of a 22-year-old black man, who was sodomised with a police baton – do result in a boost for Le Pen’s standing, as does the ongoing “Penelopegate” scandal about the finances of the centre-right candidate, François Fillon.

Macron performs the most strongly of any candidate in the second round but struggles to make it into the top two in the first. Having eked out a clear lead in second place ahead of Fillon in the wake of Penelopegate, Macron’s lead has fallen back in recent polls after he said that France’s rule in Algeria was a “crime against humanity”.

Although polls show that the lion’s share of Bayrou’s supporters flow to Macron without his presence in the race, with the rest going to Fillon and Le Pen, Macron’s standing has remained unchanged regardless of whether or not Bayrou is in the race or not. So as far as the electoral battlefield is concerned, Bayrou’s decision is not a gamechanger.

But the institutional support of the Democratic Movement will add to the ability of Macron’s new party, En Marche, to get its voters to the polls on election day, though the Democratic Movement has never won a vast number of deputies or regional elections. It will further add to the good news for Macron following a successful visit to London this week, and, his supporters will hope, will transform the mood music around his campaign.

But hopes that a similar pact between Benoît Hamon, the Socialist Party candidate, and Jean-Luc Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the Left Front’s candidate, look increasingly slim, after Mélenchon said that joining up with the Socialists would be like “hanging himself to a hearse”. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.