British business recognises that the UK belongs in the EU

The EU is an asset for Britain, not a hindrance. Unlike Tory MPs, our businesses haven't forgotten that.

"Britain could be an island completely adrift in 20 years."

Richard Branson’s new year message, including the stark warning quoted above, suggests that the silent majority of British business opinion are rousing themselves over what up until now has been a politico’s debate about Britain’s place in Europe. As Branson points out, the world is going to need its regional blocs to do its business. And as he pointed out in his interview with me in the New Statesman in July, the European Union is an asset for Britain, not a hindrance.

The truth is that the UK has never lost a vote on financial market regulation in the EU. We pay about £1 per person per week for membership, and for that don’t just get access to the world’s largest single market, but also shape its rules, and get the benefits of EU clout on global trade (trade agreements with 46 other countries). The tragedy of government rhetoric over the last two years is that it has demonised the status quo in Europe, without advancing an alternative. The fantasy island occupied by Boris Johnson of a club that is all single market and no social, environmental, or judicial cooperation doesn’t exist.

I hope the irony was not lost on anyone that the Prime Minister’s announcement of his big idea for his G8 Presidency – an EU-US trade deal – depends on, yes, the agreement of the EU operating by qualified majority. In the absence of global government, regional associations like the EU are going to become more important in the modern world.  If it looks like Britain has forgotten that, and certainly that is the impression from large swathes of the Tory party, then the rest of Europe is going to say "shut up or get out". In fact we should do neither: we should be advancing serious ideas for the EU to advance an agenda appropriate for all 28 members, including Britain.

The European Union flag flies with those of its member states in front of the European Parliament. Photograph: Getty Images.

David Miliband is the  President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee
He was foreign secretary from 2007 until 2010 and MP for South Shields from 2001 until this year. 

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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