Tories put pressure on Cameron to return Andrew Mitchell to government

David Davis and Michael Howard say that, if cleared, the former chief whip should be brought back.

Following last night's "plebgate" revelations, Andrew Mitchell's supporters have moved swiftly to demand that, if cleared, he is returned to government. On the Today programme, former Tory leader Michael Howard said that he was "appalled" by Mitchell's treatement and that he should be brought back "at the earliest possible opportunity". Given Howard's status as David Cameron's political patron, it will be hard for the Prime Minister to ignore his intervention. On the same programme, David Davis called for Mitchell, who ran his 2005 Conservative leadership campaign, to be returned to "high office", adding that he was a "fantastic international development secretary".

Vince Cable, however, sounded a cautionary note when he told Sky News that such talk was "premature". It should not be forgotten that Mitchell has admitted to swearing at the police ("I thought you guys were supposed to fucking help us"), an act that Boris Johnson suggested should be an arrestable offence. At the time of the original incident, the Mayor commented: "If I read the papers correctly there was a proposal to arrest Mr Mitchell for what he said. That seems to be wholly commonsensical. The Public Order Act does allow for police officers' discretion in this matter. They have obviously decided not to go ahead with it. But it shows the gravity of this offence."

But Mitchell's supporters will contend that had he not been accused of referring to the police as "fucking plebs" (words he has consistently denied using), he would still be in his post. If the police investigation corroborates Mitchell's version of events, it will be hard for Cameron not to offer some recompense.

Former Conservative leadership candidate David Davis said Andrew Mitchell should be returned to "high office". Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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