PMQs review: Miliband's fiercest attack yet on the welfare cuts

Labour leader says the government is hitting people "they don't meet and whose lives they will never understand".

Rarely has Ed Miliband sounded as outraged at the government as he did at today's PMQs. Challenging David Cameron on the coalition's welfare cuts, he declared: "They look after their friends, the people on their Christmas card list and, meanwhile, they hit people they don't meet and whose lives they will never understand." He turned George Osborne's rhetoric on its head by declaring that the Chancellor's cleaner would lose out "while his curtains are still drawn and he's still in bed." Despite the political risks (the majority of voters support the benefit cuts), this is a battle that Miliband has decided he must fight.

Cameron didn't deny that the 1 per cent cap on benefit increases would fall most heavily on working households ("everyone who is on tax credits will be affected by those changes," he said), rather he argued that the cap was necessary to reduce the welfare bill and pointed out that families would benefit from the large increase in the personal allowance. "This is the party for people who work, his is the party for unlimited welfare," he declared. In response, Miliband highlighted research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies showing that the average one earner couple will be £534 a year worse off by 2015, a point Cameron was unable to rebut.

But it was the personal, not the policy clashes, that were most memorable. After Cameron described Ed Balls as a bully who can "dish it out but can't take it", Miliband replied: "I've heard it all when the boy from the Bullingdon Club lectures people on bullying. Have you wrecked a restaurant recently?"

The Tories remain confident that voters will support their tough stance on the deficit and welfare, rather than Labour's. Conversely, Labour believes that the government has badly miscalculated by hitting the very "strivers" it claims to support. The outcome of the next election will likely rest on which is right. 

Labour leader Ed Miliband addresses a Trade Union Congress (TUC) rally in Hyde Park earlier this year. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.