Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from today's papers.

  1. I wish I had trusted my instincts on Plebgate (Times)
    Matthew Parris examines the abuse of police authority which led to Andrew Mitchell's smearing.
  2. Cheer up. All this doom and gloom plays into the Tories' hands (Guardian)
    If the idea that we're all screwed takes hold, the Conservatives will end up exploiting the fear they've created, writes Zoe Williams.
  3. London’s ‘white flight’ deserves attention (Financial Times)
    That the city is no longer majority ‘white British’ is a remarkable development, writes David Goodhart.
  4. A huge risk we pro-Europeans must take (Guardian)
    Shaun Woodward writes that a referendum on the EU may now be the only way forward for those of us who see membership as vital to the UK's future.
  5. There’s a whiff of failure at the heart of our honours system (Telegraph)
    The PM promised to end the abuses, but there are signs of a return to the old ways, reports Peter Oborne.
  6. Britain needs to adopt a more German face (Financial Times)
    As a model of coping with sudden slowing, Berlin has achieved a better result than Tokyo, writes Chris Giles.
  7. Don’t lampoon what the NRA says. Ask why (Times)
    Guns are attractive, suicide complicated. Until we grasp the reasons behind the headlines, we remain unenlightened, argues David Aaronovitch
  8. With all the fuss over Kate Middleton's baby, have we learned nothing since Princess Diana?
    (Independent) God help us if the Royal Foetus is all we have to look forward to in 2013, writes Viv Groksop.
  9. Pensioners are about to be robbed yet again (Telegraph)
    The Chancellor is poised to alter the way inflation is calculated and interest paid, says Philip Johnston.
  10. So you think the wealth gap is growing? Wrong (Independent)
    Not only are we all in it together, but the rich are bearing and will bear a greater share of the burden of taxes than the poor. Why won't the Coalition say this more loudly, asks John Rentoul.

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

0800 7318496