There is no prospect of David Cameron staging an EU referendum before 2015, so it was typically mischievous of Boris Johnson to declare this morning that it would be "fantastic" if one were to be held before the next election. Such interventions by Boris mean that Cameron's plan to offer a referendum after 2015 on "a new settlement" for Britain (to be announced in his long-delayed speech on Europe) will inevitably disappoint. The PM declared this week: "Thanks for reminding me that my Europe speech remains as yet unmade. This is a tantric approach to policy-making: it'll be even better when it does eventually come." But conscious of the growing threat from UKIP, many Tory MPs will complain that a vote can't be held sooner. The presence of the Lib Dems in goverment, however, leaves Cameron with little choice.
Boris also added to the Prime Minister's woes by arguing that the UK should be prepared to leave the EU if it proves unable to secure radically changed terms of membership. "That is correct, absolutely correct [that Britain should be prepared to exit the EU]," he said. "I don’t think that [leaving the EU] is necessarily the end of the world.
"Don’t forget that 15 years ago the entire CBI, British Industry, the City, everybody was prophesying that there’d be gigantic mutant rats with two or three eyes swarming out of the gutters, the sewers, to gnaw the faces of the remaining British bankers because we didn’t go into the euro. My preferred option is for us to stay in there. I will stress [leaving] is not my preferred option."
Cameron's referendum is expected to offer voters a choice between renegotiated membership and withdrawal, but the PM will struggle to prevent many Tories arguing for the latter, regardless of the concessions he extracts from Brussels. The promise of a vote on Europe will only prove the start of his problems, not the end.