Where does Clegg now stand on an EU referendum?

The Lib Dems supported a referendum on EU withdrawal in their 2010 manifesto.

With an ever-greater number of Tory MPs demanding a referendum on EU withdrawal, it's worth recalling that one of the three main parties has already promised one - the Lib Dems. The party's 2010 election manifesto stated:

The European Union has evolved significantly since the last public vote on membership over thirty years ago. Liberal Democrats therefore remain committed to an in / out referendum the next time a British government signs up for fundamental change in the relationship between the UK and the EU.

As the leaflet below shows, the Lib Dems also campaigned on the issue.

In his speech on Europe yesterday, Clegg denounced the belief that Britain could repatriate powers from the EU as "wishful thinking", adding that "as soon as we start talking about repatriation, we descend into the in-versus-out debate". It is precisely for this reason that the Lib Dems argued for a referendum on withdrawal at the last election. More recently, however, the party has made no mention of the pledge, taking the view that, with the eurozone in crisis, now would be "the wrong time" for a vote.

With Cameron shortly expected to outline plans to hold a referendum after the next election on a "new EU settlement" for Britain, it remains to be seen how Clegg responds. Tory MPs, if not his own party, are unlikely to let him forget his recent support for a vote on membership.

Nick Clegg gives a press conference in Brussels in 2011. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.