A very modest Lib Dem rebellion on the benefits cap

Sarah Teather dodged a vote the first time round, now she has sided with Labour.

Sarah Teather, Liberal Democrat MP for Brent Central and children and families minister until she was sacked in the autumn reshuffle, was on the front page of the Observer last weekend decrying the effects of the government's benefits cap. She called it "immoral and divisive" and said she saw clear evidence while in government that the policy wouldn't save money while being sure to inflict social harm and trauma to some very poor, vulnerable families.

Teather is not the only Lib Dem to have strong feelings about the cap and its passage into law provoked a mini rebellion in the party ranks. As a minister, Teather was obliged to support government policy but found a way to be absent from the crucial votes. That pointed abstention provoked fury on the Tory side and triggered demands for her resignation.

As it happens, that wasn't quite the end of the cap's journey into law. As I noted in my column the other week, there was still a 'deferred division' due on a statutory instrument bringing in the last regulations required to implement the policy. This is an unglamorous parliamentary procedure - a tying up of loose ends - that allows MPs to signal their assent or dissent without a noisy debate in the floor of the chamber. It happened yesterday.

Having read about Teather's feelings on the cap, I was curious to see if she would put her vote where her mouth had been on the weekend and side with Labour. A quick look at today's Hansard, column 692, reporting the list of voting MPs confirms, that indeed she did. Not the noisiest, most flamboyant, well-advertised rebellion in Commons history. But a rebellion none the less.

Liberal Democrat MP and former children's minister Sarah Teather. Photograph: Getty Images.

Rafael Behr is political columnist at the Guardian and former political editor of the New Statesman

Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Scotland's vast deficit remains an obstacle to independence

Though the country's financial position has improved, independence would still risk severe austerity. 

For the SNP, the annual Scottish public spending figures bring good and bad news. The good news, such as it is, is that Scotland's deficit fell by £1.3bn in 2016/17. The bad news is that it remains £13.3bn or 8.3 per cent of GDP – three times the UK figure of 2.4 per cent (£46.2bn) and vastly higher than the white paper's worst case scenario of £5.5bn. 

These figures, it's important to note, include Scotland's geographic share of North Sea oil and gas revenue. The "oil bonus" that the SNP once boasted of has withered since the collapse in commodity prices. Though revenue rose from £56m the previous year to £208m, this remains a fraction of the £8bn recorded in 2011/12. Total public sector revenue was £312 per person below the UK average, while expenditure was £1,437 higher. Though the SNP is playing down the figures as "a snapshot", the white paper unambiguously stated: "GERS [Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland] is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances". 

As before, Nicola Sturgeon has warned of the threat posed by Brexit to the Scottish economy. But the country's black hole means the risks of independence remain immense. As a new state, Scotland would be forced to pay a premium on its debt, resulting in an even greater fiscal gap. Were it to use the pound without permission, with no independent central bank and no lender of last resort, borrowing costs would rise still further. To offset a Greek-style crisis, Scotland would be forced to impose dramatic austerity. 

Sturgeon is undoubtedly right to warn of the risks of Brexit (particularly of the "hard" variety). But for a large number of Scots, this is merely cause to avoid the added turmoil of independence. Though eventual EU membership would benefit Scotland, its UK trade is worth four times as much as that with Europe. 

Of course, for a true nationalist, economics is irrelevant. Independence is a good in itself and sovereignty always trumps prosperity (a point on which Scottish nationalists align with English Brexiteers). But if Scotland is to ever depart the UK, the SNP will need to win over pragmatists, too. In that quest, Scotland's deficit remains a vast obstacle. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.