The problem with Cameron's energy plan

A tariff is not "the lowest" if it's the only one available.

When David Cameron boldly declared, to the surprise of his ministers, that the government would force energy companies to put all their customers on the lowest tariff available, few expected his proposal to last. But the coalition will today attempt to fulfil the Prime Minister's pledge. Energy Secretary Ed Davey is expected to announce that suppliers will be required to offer no more than four core tariffs (including fixed and variable rates) and to automatically move customers on to the cheapest one in each case.

Yet if companies are forced to offer consumers the lowest tariff in each category (be it fixed rate or variable), this won't be the lowest tariff available - it will be the only one. It would be as accurate to call it "the highest" tariff as it would be to call it "the lowest". And why should we assume that this single tariff will be set at the lowest rate currently available? The danger is that that the "Big Six" will simply raise the level of the lowest tariff, so that consumers pay no less, or even more, than at present. Ann Robinson, director of consumer policy at uSwitch, has warned that the unintended consequence of the move will be "to kill competition". She told the Guardian: "Consumers will be left with Hobson's choice – there will be no spur, no choice, no innovation and no reason for consumers to engage any more."

Labour too is sceptical. Shadow energy secretary Caroline Flint notes that "the cheapest deal in an uncompetitive market will still not be a good deal. Unless David Cameron stands up to vested interests in the energy market and creates a tough new watchdog with powers to force energy companies to pass on price cuts his warm words will be cold comfort to people worried about paying their fuel bill this winter. "

In promising to win a better deal for consumers and denouncing the last Labour government for its failure to do so, Cameron has raised significant expectations. If he proves unable to fulfil them, it is his government that will pay the price.

David Cameron with Energy Secretary Ed Davey. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.