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Obama's disunited states

It would be a mistake to regard the result as a sweeping endorsement of the Obama presidency.

Barack Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama and their daughters Mali and Shasa.
Barack Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama and their daughters Mali and Shasa arrive to board Marine One in Chicago. Photograph: Getty Images.

So what was all that fuss about? Voters and pundits wanting a good night's sleep should have double-checked the final opinion polls and the exits and gone to bed safe in the knowledge that Barack Obama would be re-elected by a surprisingly convincing margin.

That was one of the stories of a great night for the pollsters as well as for Democrats and liberal America. By extension, the President's decisive defeat of Mitt Romney was a stunning reverse to Republicans who had insisted that the polls underplayed their score. The GOP had confidently expected to at least take Florida and Virginia and to run Obama to the wire in Ohio. It didn't happen. The President swept the board of the key swing states. In the event, of the states that made up his total of 365 electoral college votes in 2008, Obama ceded only two - Indiana and North Carolina to Romney - romping home with narrow but clear victories in, amongst others, Virginia, Colorado and the ultimate bellwether states, Ohio. While Florida will be recounted after a mere 46,000 votes separated the two main candidates, Obama still holds the load and will probably claim the state.

It is also a personal triumph for Obama and for liberal America. The Obama-care health reforms are a political revolution that few thought a Democratic President could get through Congress against well-funded opposition determined. The rights of women, gay Americans and minorities have also been protected. The two Republican Senatorial candidates who became embroiled in scandal after making incendiary remarks opposing the termination of pregnancies resulting from rape were heavily defeated.

At the weekend, Victoria Yeroian, President of the Young Democrats at Virginia Commonwealth university, passionately described the importance of the Affordable Care Act and legislation on gender pay discrimination. By contrast, one Republican canvasser in St Petersburg told me on Monday that "Obama care forcing everybody to be equal is just wrong", arguing instead that she had been forced to sell her house to pay for her husband's healthcare and that others should do the same. It is huge breakthrough that healthcare in America will no longer be based on the ability to pay and in time opponents, as well as supporters of Obama-care, will recognise its value and justness

But it would be a mistake to regard this as a sweeping endorsement of the Obama presidency. It is not just that the two candidates were separated by a fraction over one per cent in the popular vote but the fact that the results reflect an America that is deeply divided politically, socially and economically. Obama's winning coalition was based on reaching out to latino voters. The President picked up 70 per cent of Latino voters, over 90 per cent of African-Americans, as well as a majority of women and university educated voters. However, most white Americans voted for Romney with a large majority of male voters backing the Republican.

In fact, after an election process in which the two camps have spent a combined $6bn including $700m on television adverts in the swing states alone, the reality is that little has changed. Indiana and North Carolina were the only two states to change hands compared to 2008. Meanwhile, the Democrats increased their majority in the Senate by picking up two seats but failed to make any inroads into the Republicans' 25 seat majority in the House of Representatives.

With the Republican hard-right indicating that they will continue to oppose anything and everything that the President touches the political deadlock that has paralysed Capitol Hill for over two years will not be broken if Obama does not reach out to the remaining moderate Republicans. If he can do this, the Democrats will reap the rewards. For all the animosity between Democrats and Republicans, most voters want a bipartisan approach that can break the legislative log-jam in Washington.

Without a radical change of mindset and culture, it is difficult to see how a Republican candidate will be able to secure the presidency. The Hispanic community, in particular, is increasing rapidly, now accounting for over 10 per cent of the population. On the basis of the current demographic trends, America will cease to be a majority white country between 2040 and 2050.

The division between white and black and brown America also created an unedifying spectacle in a number of counties in the likes of Florida, Ohio and Virginia, with a string of accusations and lawsuits against state Republicans over allegations that voters in predominantly African-American and hispanic communities were being blocked or delayed at polling stations. At precinct 135 on the outskirts of St Petersburg, Sharon Hodgson, Vice-Chair of Pinellas Democrats, was in no doubt that the tactics were a cynical attempt by state Republicans to stop black and hispanic people from voting. The undoubted attempts by Republicans to suppress voting were and are a shameful stain on American democracy.

After the polls closed, I spent about an hour at the post-election party of the St Petersburg Republican party. The several hundred campaigners and local candidates were polite, committed, and almost exclusively white and middle aged. Aside from two waiters there was only one black man in the room, while a handful of unhappy looking children behaving themselves in their Sunday best brought down the average age into the 50s. In a country of minorities, the GOP can simply no longer afford to be a white-person's party. The Republicans remind me of the Tory blue rinse brigade - their base support is simply too old and too white to win.

But, for the moment, who cares about the GOP's doomsday scenario and the tightness of the popular vote? Wednesday is a great day to be a liberal in America.

Ben Fox is a political reporter for EU Observer

6 comments

jurgeguedypop's picture

in the first place i sooo want to speak g'day to madams and sirs

i want to are saying g'day to ladies and gentlemen

Posh Tosh's picture

Either go back to the pre Mason - Dixon line, or send all immigrants back home , every one that has come from a foreign line.

Then put the rightful people, the real minority that were once proud Red-Indians' as the saying goes, back in charge and let them decide whom is allowed in their country.

jankaas's picture

the problem is not wholly with their electoral system as much as it is with their citizens. both sides demonise the other in a manner that is genuinely astonishing, even to those used to aggressive politics. i have known Democrats who literally view all Republicans as evil, and vice versa. and they don't just hate the extremists on the other side, no, they literally despise ALL of the other side. the middle ground is a sparsely populated field.

so the quite sensible democratic safety process of a 2nd House is where the action and problems reside. the record number of Republican filibusters during Obama I must be viewed as a corruption of this tool. it borders on treason imho.

maybe the solution would be to limit the absolute number of filibusters any one side can use during a single Presidential period?

AAMVN's picture

It is human nature to vilify and despise those who are not 'like us'. This is where the scourge of racism comes from but it is as evident and potentially perhaps as dangerous in football hooliganism, politics, regionalism and nationalism.

I don't view all Republicans as bad any more than all Democrats are good. Some Republicans do border on evil though - IMHO. I'm not so aware of evil among Democrats but there may be extreme views held by some that I would be revolted by. There are some smears directed at Democrats - like calling them or their policies Socialist - that some Republicans probably think (mistakenly in fact) are evil. Often these are the same Republicans who love medicare which is extremely socialist.

The sad thing about the majority of Republicans is they've been hoodwinked into believing the Republican party stands for opportunity, freedom, moral values, hard work and independence - when in fact it stands for none of these. The neo-con agenda is about preserving/restoring the privelige of the elite - and the elite is a tiny percentage of society - max 10% in the US but actually perhaps less than 1%.

Liberalism is by far superior ethically to conservatism since no-one is forced to attend a gay marriage or have premarital sex simply by making them legal and accepted. I have zero objection to a Republican expounding his (or perhaps her) pro-life POV. It is a very understandable conviction to hold. But the battle has been fought and choice has won - so get over it. If you can't agree with abortion under any circumstance - FINE - don't have one or don't perform one if you're a doctor/nurse. Just stay out of the lives of other people - FULL STOP. [Period for those from NA]. This should not be so difficult to grasp really.

I do however take some courage from this election cycle. The tide is really turning. The Republican neocon machine went into overdrive and poured 100s of millions of dollars into it. They lied, cheated, intimidated and fought dirty in every way imaginable. But America didn't fall for it. If you add in the millions of votes suppressed, rejected or from poorer sections of society that just can't get to a polling station and see no point if their state always votes Democratic anyway then I suspect Obama's majority would be 10-15 million. I'm sure some Republicans couldn't bring themselves to vote for Romney too - but overall I think there is evidence that the 90 Million who failed to vote would have split roughly 45 D and 30R with 15m for Green party or something else.

Personally I don't see the value of filibusters to a democratic system. But equally I think every vote in congress/the senate should be a free vote.

In the UK if the House of Lords votes down a bill the Commons can send it back and eventually it has to pass. Is there nothing like that in the US?

AAMVN's picture

The US 'system' does look rather like an object lesson in how not to run an election. It is hard to find a democracy that is actually worse - any candidates?

Proportional systems seem inherently fairer but can lead to chaotic changes of PM every 6-12 months like Japan. Who'd want that?

If they can inpose uniform and fair registration and polling in all states and perhaps break the states into constituencies so that every electoral vote had one constuency each - or maybe 2-3 votes per constituency it could work better. Will they ever agree? Doubt it.

If they could just give Texas back to Mexico there'd never be another Republican in the Whitehouse. I know I know - but if that fool Coulter can suggest not letting women vote I can send the lone star state packing...

Lucidus's picture

In terms of the presidential elections, the Democratic Party has few places to advance into.
Assuming the Democrats win Florida, the only state they could typically expect to take in 2016 is North Carolina (Obama 48.4%; Romney 50.6%).
Beyond that, their next best result is Georgia (45.4%).

So there are about 22 states the Democrats can ignore for presidential elections. And much the same applies to the Republicans.

The electoral college does reinforce a polarised USA. If all states split their electoral college vote proportionally, then the contest would involve all states, which would be healthier for democracy.

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