How Michael Gove manipulated education statistics
The Education Secretary's misleading claim that the UK has plummeted down the international league tables.
By George Eaton Published 08 November 2012 16:07
One of Michael Gove's favourite arguments for his school reforms is that Britain has plummeted down the international education league tables. In June 2011 he told Policy Exchange that the UK had fallen from "4th to 16th place in science; from 7th to 25th place in literacy; and from 8th to 28th in maths" between 2000 and 2009 in the OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA).
But how reliable are the statistics? In this week's NS, Peter Wilby draws attention to a story that deserves more than attention than it has so far received (no national paper has reported on it). Last month, in response to a letter from David Miliband, Andrew Dilnot, the chair of the UK Statistics Authority, expressed "concern" about the Department for Education's unqualified use of the figures. He noted that the OECD's 2009 report for the UK included the following "important caveat":
Trend comparisons, which are a feature of the PISA 2009 reporting are not reported here because for the United Kingdom it is only possible to compare 2006 and 2009 data. As the PISA 2000 and PISA 2003 samples did not meet the PISA response-rate standards, no trend comparisons are possible for these years.
In other words, Gove should not be comparing results from 2000 with those from 2009. Dilnot wrote: "While I understand that some users of these data would like to make comparisons between the first PISA study in 2000 and the most recent in 2009, the weaknesses relating to the response-rate standard in earlier studies should not be ignored."
He concluded: "These uncertainties and weaknesses are not just a technical footnote; they are themselves an important part of the evidence, and affect interpretation and meaning. League tables and the presentation of international rankings can be statistically problematic, and require clear and careful commentary alongside them."
The statistics chief also noted a review published by the Institute for Education which concluded that "problems with identifying change over time" meant the apparent decline in secondary school pupils' performance should not be treated as a "statistically robust result". The Department for Education is yet to respond.
This isn't the only recent instance of the coalition playing fast and loose with statistics. David Cameron is fond of boasting that "one million" new private sector jobs have been created since the coalition came to power, but, as I've noted before, what he doesn't mention is that 196,000 of these were simply reclassified from the public sector.
After complaining for years about Gordon Brown's manipulation of economic statistics, the coalition came to power promising a new era of transparency. But Gove and Cameron's behaviour suggests it's not prepared to practise what it preached.
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19 comments
I'm all for improvements in education. But let us be honest, rightly or wrongly, for better or for worse, whatever may come from Gove's policies, they are at best a pure political game. I would not have expected this of the conservatives. Police commissioners= less state and more chance of politicalisation of police. Border Changes= less democracy- less chance of Conservatives losing. Gove's free schools and obsession with academies= reduction of union influence on schools and less state and more privatisation. The same with the nhs. It was not enough for private firms to use and rent in theory the nhs for services- at least private and public - co funded each other. Oh no, this government has taken ownership of the state and is selling it off. Nhs, education, council land and resources.
This is far bigger than lowering public sector pay to minimum wage. This is actually a sell off of the country and Salmond has agreed with Cameron to do the same over the border.
Your last paragraph is spot on re. the underlying agenda - it is antisocial nest-feathering of massive proportions and, of course, the underlying cause of the present recession. The haemophiliac economy is being bled to line the barbers' pockets.
As to the effects of the Gove opportunism - no intelligent, evidence-based analysis would predict anything good. Watch out for more spin and lies as a means of denying reality.
Today, we will have wearing of poppies and strutting before the cenotaph of those who are bit by bit destroying the legacy of those two generations who bequeathed a more civilised society after two world wars.
Indu Pendent & Tosh Posh, It is one thing for people to have an opinion on your level of intellectual capabilities, it’s another for you to come on here & prove their theory,
It always amazes me how Gove is treated with seriousness by allegedly intelligent people. Once again, in the current NS, we have Raphael Behr, like an impressionable groupie, treating him as a man of talent. I recall Mehdi Hasan doing the same, possessed by the same received opinion that infects the metropolitan gang-bang.
Of course, Gove has to be taken seriously in one sense - his profoundly stupid and ill-informed ideas are a disaster for the country. But they are the ideas of a snake-oil salesman, not of formidable intellect. He is both liar (this is but the latest example) and fool (obviously), a pompous scribbler elevated far beyond his capabilities in the increasingly self-referential (and reverential) system of our politics and media.
The patent neglect of the story, and the continual swallowing of statistical snake-oil is the real indictment of the media - not the Savile affair.
We really do have a major problem when a distinguished and allegedly radical journal such as the NS publishes a stream of unsupportable received drivel about academies as an editorial.
- but at least we have Peter Wilby still doing journalism.
I'm a Conservative voter myself and I'm afraid I have to agree with you. Gove is a classic example of the Emperor with no clothes; widely admired for no better reason than he harks back to a non-existent past.
Learning by rote and Greek for primary schoolchildren, purely to feed this man's
vainglorious ideology. Undertake reform, by all means, but do it on the basis of a better rationale than that it appeals to the ego of one decidedly dodgy character.
I wouldn't vote for him if he was my MP. I think he's dangerous, and, quite possibly, mad.
With the cover-ups supporting paedophiles maybe the New Staesman ought attach itself to Fablon, at least it will help stop the views of the offenders inflicting their lust on kiddies.
It was once part of Fabian.
I am off here!
I hate gay padophiles!
It's interesting how Michael Give insists on educational 'rigour' in our schools whilst falling somewhat short of that ideal in his own work.
That the government manipulated the statistics to justify a change in the education system is hardly a surprise. Any change in the system always seems to be preceded by a sudden drop in the results. The new system will come in and the results will return to the year on year improvement that is the standard result of political interference in the education system. When the results become, in effect, a judgement on some politicians bright new idea, this process is inevitable.
Labour's legacy after the billions of borrowing is that half of adults leave state school without GCSE maths and english. Its not a statitic the last government manipulated ... they simply suppressed it.
And does your own misspelling of the word "statistic" indicate a failure of English, Mathematics, or both?
Proves the - I went to a crap Labour flagship comprehensive which had all the facilities and loads of money spent on it but I watched it destroy the life chances of 100s of kids through left wing leveling down culture.
You can always go to night school and catch up. Or do an OU course. A lot of people who didn't thrive at school come into their own in their twenties and thirties. Or even later in life.
Could be taken in two ways but assume you are well meaning.
Higher education would not make me wealthier now but might have helped when I was starting out. The challenge is to mend the broken state system for the next generation - it fails most people because of how it is run. Why do we let it do this?
Have you thought of becoming a school governor?
A genuinely excellent idea! It's nice when something constructive comes from this sort of discussion.
Sure.
It provide work placements and sponsorships as a priority wherever I can in my businesses to give a chance to bright kids failed by the state. I also support employees helping out in their schools and sponsor local school events.
OFQUAL has looked at this topic and quotes this study:
"It also needs to be noted that the differences between countries’ performance are not that large and are usually statistically insignificant. The ‘horse race’ approach to the rankings produced by international studies – looking to see which position England is placed in and whether or not it has moved up or down the league tables is not that meaningful partly because the absolute differences in scores between countries are not that great and partly because the constituent group of comparators changes from study to study and from year to year. Overall, and over time, England’s performance is not that worrisome."
International Comparisons in Senior Secondary Assessment:
ofqual.gov.uk/downloads/category/42-comparability?download=1145%3Ainternational-comparisons-in-senior-secondary-assessment-progress-report
There's an article on PISA here.
Leaning tower of PISA – 7 serious skews:
donaldclarkplanb.blogspot.co.uk/2011/03/leaning-tower-of-pisa-7-serious-skews.html
What makes me laugh is that Gove thinks that his new look in glasses makes him look less idiotic !
G ove is doing his best to make pupils dumber by his ill-focused education reforms!