Could Labour lose the Rotherham by-election?

The party still expects to win but is increasingly nervous about the UKIP threat.

As well as the publication of the Leveson report, tomorrow sees three parliamentary by-elections - in Middlesborough, Croydon North and Rotherham (all currently Labour-held). Of these, it is the latter that Labour is concentrating resources on. A combination of factors - the date (which will reduce turnout), the child grooming scandals, Denis MacShane's resignation over false invoices, a divided local party and, most recently, the UKIP fostering row - means that the result is increasingly hard to predict.

It was initially Respect, which is fielding Yvonne Ridley, a former journalist who famously converted to Islam after her capture by the Taliban, that was seen as the main threat, but it is now UKIP, support for which has surged since the weekend, that represents the greatest challenge to Labour. The latest YouGov poll puts Nigel Farage's party on 11 per cent (up from eight per cent), the party's highest-ever rating, and it is likely to have enjoyed a far larger swing in Rotherham.

The expectation among those Labour MPs I've spoken to remains that the party will retain the seat (as well as Middlesborough and Croydon North), albeit, one said, with a "significantly reduced majority". The advantage for Labour, which currently holds a majority of 10,462 in Rotherham, is that the protest vote will be split four ways between UKIP, Respect, the BNP (which polled 10.4 per cent in 2010) and the English Democrats. One hope among party activists is that the Tories will be pushed into third or even fourth place, leaving them unable to spin the result against Labour.

Ed Miliband speaks to reporters after Labour candidate Andy Sawford won the Corby by-election. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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LISTEN: Boris Johnson has a meltdown in car crash interview on the Queen’s Speech

“Hang on a second…errr…I’m sorry, I’m sorry.”

“Hang on a second,” Boris Johnson sighed. On air, you could hear the desperate rustling of his briefing notes (probably a crumpled Waitrose receipt with “crikey” written on it) and him burbling for an answer.

Over and over again, on issues of racism, working-class inequality, educational opportunity, mental healthcare and housing, the Foreign Secretary failed to answer questions about the content of his own government’s Queen’s Speech, and how it fails to tackle “burning injustices” (in Theresa May’s words).

With each new question, he floundered more – to the extent that BBC Radio 4 PM’s presenter Eddie Mair snapped: “It’s not a Two Ronnies sketch; you can’t answer the question before last.”

But why read your soon-to-be predecessor’s Queen’s Speech when you’re busy planning your own, eh?

Your mole isn’t particularly surprised at this poor performance. Throughout the election campaign, Tory politicians – particularly cabinet secretaries – gave interview after interview riddled with gaffes.

These performances were somewhat overlooked by a political world set on humiliating shadow home secretary Diane Abbott, who has been struggling with ill health. Perhaps if commentators had less of an anti-Abbott agenda – and noticed the car crash performances the Tories were repeatedly giving and getting away with it – the election result would have been less of a surprise.

I'm a mole, innit.

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