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Corby shows how a Lib Dem collapse will hurt the Tories

A fall in support for the Lib Dems will propel Labour to victory in Tory marginals.

David Cameron and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg. Photograph: Getty Images.
The Liberal Democrats lost their deposit in the Corby by-election after finishing fourth behind Ukip. Photograph: Getty Images.

One the most notable things about the result of the Corby by-election is the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. The party saw its share of the vote fall from 14.5 per cent to just 5 per cent as it was pushed into fourth place by Ukip, which won nearly three times as many votes (5,108 to 1,770).

Many of those who voted for the Lib Dems in 2010 will have defected to Labour, which saw its vote increase by 9.8% to 48.4%, propelling the party to victory against the Conservatives. If this patten is repeated at the general election, the Tories stand to lose dozens of seats - there are 37 Conservative-Labour marginals where the third place Lib Dem vote is more than twice the margin of victory. Even if Nick Clegg's party partially recovers before 2015, Labour will make sweeping gains. In addition, while existing Lib Dem MPs, many of whom enjoy large local followings, are likely to benefit from an incumbency effect, it is the Tories, not Labour, who will suffer as a result - David Cameron's party is in second place in 38 of the Lib Dems' 57 seats.

If they are to stand any chance of winning a majority at the next election or even remaining the largest single party, the Tories need to hope for a Lib Dem recovery.

11 comments

Posh Tosh's picture

I woder why Dave Cameron recieved of his rich - very rich merchant banker father, just the maximum he could receive before paying death duties.

Now if Labour had pressed on why his other fortune from hid father and not declared, surely they would be on a far bigger winner.

Seems Dave Cameron makes Starbucks look honourable tax avoiders.

Hahahahahaha's picture

Hahahahahaha
Hahahahahaha
Hahahahahaha
Hahahahahaha

Bye bye LibDems

And as Christmas is coming Hohohohohoohohohohohoho

And

Hahahahahaha

FACT!

Hugh C Markey's picture

Oh how the Nazis blamed their allies when the fighting on the Eastern Front went against them.
Without these allies the German Forces could no more have advanced and held Soviet territory than a middle-weight boxer could take on and win against an opponent two weight-divisions above his own.
The Tories are just a blown-up political middle-weight depending on low turn-out and other political parties to boost them into office.
Of course the Labour Party has some fifth-columnists in the ranks but hopefully nobody on the left will listen to those defeatist voices.

Auxiliaries ( Cannon Fodder )

Posh Tosh's picture

How's Keil Ninnock doing the Knight of the Gutter, awarded to take Europe from culbability for finacial theft and steering? The Tory party had no one better to represent them after John Major gave him also the Order of the Pork Sword.

Hugh C Markey's picture

Oh how the Nazis blamed their allies when the fighting on the Eastern Front went against them.
Without these allies the German Forces could no more have advanced and held Soviet territory than a middle-weight boxer could take on and win against an opponent two weight-divisions above his own.
The Tories are just a blown-up political middle-weight depending on low turn-out and other political parties to boost them into office.
Of course the Labour Party has some fifth-columnists in the ranks but hopefully nobody on the left will listen to those defeatist voices.

Auxiliaries ( Cannon Fodder )

G Hancocks's picture

The three by elections and the PCC elections results (which give Lab circa a 6.5% lead over tories in England and Wales - minus London. If Scotland and London are added to equation this would be circa 10-12%) demonstrate opinion polls broadly correct with a 10%+ Labour lead and libdems on about 7.5%. I would expect the libdem vote to recover somewhat in 2015 BUT I think having identified so closely with such a right wing government, they will have no appeal to the centre-left which I would think was 40-50% of their vote. They have only themselves to blame.

elrob's picture

i wonder what would have happened if there had been an unpopular tory government, not a coalition, and the lib dems were another party in opposition.

----------------------
Who cares? There wasn't. Accidents of history are important, and the Tories fell 20 seats short. end of.
The left-wing vote has been badly split for 30 years. It looks like that split will not be there to a significant degree in 2014-15. Many of those who voted Libdem in London are horrified, that much I know from anecdote. If it's similar elsewhere, they are toast.

However, an as yet barely mentioned phenomenon is the split in the right-wing vote. I refer to the Tories/UKIP.

Thatcher won two re-elections partly because of the southern economic boom - she did not need the votes of northerners and the unemployed - and partly because of the split from Labour of the SDP, which became allied to the Liberals and later became LibDems. The split ensured Tory victories from Britain's luckiest PM (she also got most of the North Sea oil); the mirror-effect could do the same for Miliband. If it does, I hope he shows some of her radical brio. But nothing else of her....

Leon Wolfeson's picture

The left vote is sitting at home. Labour left it, some of it tried the LibDems last time and basically got smacked down, nastily.

It'll take proportional representation to get much of it out again.

Herbert's picture

'The left-wing vote has been badly split for 30 years.'

What, between the 'left wing' Labour party and the 'left wing' Lib Dems. Excuse me while I piss myself laughing at what 'left' has come to mean.

frances smith's picture

yes, and no. i think there are trends, but like with economics, the science of how people transfer votes assumes people are more predictable than they necessarily are.

i wonder what would have happened if there had been an unpopular tory government, not a coalition, and the lib dems were another party in opposition.

i think labour would still have won the by-election. as in many ways i think the lib dems were a form of protest vote by former labour voters who didn't like the tories, during the labour government.

so the lib dem vote was inflated before the last election by the number of people who were disillusioned with labour, but didn't want to vote tory.

so the lib dem coalition with the tories, and subsequent vote collapse has revealed the existence of these voters, which is a good thing, but they still exist outside of their identity as voters for a particular party, if that makes sense, as they are not as attached to the party they vote for in the same way as someone who is a political activist. they are a group of voters, not a commodity to be bought and sold.

Herbert's picture

'they are a group of voters, not a commodity to be bought and sold.'

Unlike in the United States?

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