Boris deepens his struggle against a third Heathrow runway

Mayor of London tells supporters of a third runway: "you're completely wrong, you will be defeated".

As the government-commissioned Davies report into aviaition capacity is officially launched, Boris Johnson has just used an appearance on the Today programme to deepen his struggle against a third runway at Heathrow. To supporters of the proposal, which Howard Davies's commission will consider, the Mayor of London declared: "you're completely wrong, you will be defeated."

Observing that almost every politician in London was elected on a mandate to rule out a third runway, he said it would be "politically toxic ... it will go down incredibly badly in London, it will lead to a significant erosion of the quality of life for the people in London." The problem with a third runway, he argued, is that a fourth would be soon be needed - and where would that go? He went on: "The runway at Heathrow simply will not happen ... There is absolutely no need for us to delay to 2015. Can I tell you, in the next nine years, how many runways they’re going to build in China? They’re going to build 52. How many in the UK? None at all. It is a policy of utter inertia."

The aim of the Davies report, as with most government inquiries, is to achieve a political consensus. But with Boris unequivocally opposed to a third runway (the preferred option of several senior ministers, including George Osborne) Labour sceptical (Ed Miliband almost resigned from the Brown government over the policy), and the Lib Dems opposed to any new runways at London's airports as well as "Boris island", there seems little prospect of that. Rarely has an inquiry been so undermined before it has even begun.

Mayor of London Boris Johnson said a third runway at Heathrow would be "a complete disaster for the people of London". Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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The Brexit elite want to make trade great again – but there’s a catch

The most likely trade partners will want something in return. And it could be awkward. 

Make trade great again! That's an often overlooked priority of Britain's Brexit elite, who believe that by freeing the United Kingdom from the desiccated hand of the European bureaucracy they can strike trade deals with the rest of the world.

That's why Liam Fox, the Trade Secretary, is feeling particularly proud of himself this morning, and has written an article for the Telegraph about all the deals that he is doing the preparatory work for. "Britain embarks on trade crusade" is that paper's splash.

The informal talks involve Norway, New Zealand, and the Gulf Cooperation Council, a political and economic alliance of Middle Eastern countries, including Kuwait, the UAE and our friends the Saudis.

Elsewhere, much symbolic importance has been added to a quick deal with the United States, with Theresa May saying that we were "front of the queue" with President-Elect Donald Trump in her speech this week. 

As far as Trump is concerned, the incoming administration seems to see it differently: Wilbur Ross, his Commerce Secretary, yesterday told Congress that the first priority is to re-negotiate the Nafta deal with their nearest neighbours, Canada and Mexico.

In terms of judging whether or not Brexit is a success or not, let's be clear: if the metric for success is striking a trade deal with a Trump administration that believes that every trade deal the United States has struck has been too good on the other party to the deal, Brexit will be a failure.

There is much more potential for a genuine post-Brexit deal with the other nations of the English-speaking world. But there's something to watch here, too: there is plenty of scope for trade deals with the emerging powers in the Brics - Brazil, India, etc. etc.

But what there isn't is scope for a deal that won't involve the handing out of many more visas to those countries, particularly India, than we do currently.

Downing Street sees the success of Brexit on hinging on trade and immigration. But political success on the latter may hobble any hope of making a decent go of the former. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.