Boris deepens his struggle against a third Heathrow runway

Mayor of London tells supporters of a third runway: "you're completely wrong, you will be defeated".

As the government-commissioned Davies report into aviaition capacity is officially launched, Boris Johnson has just used an appearance on the Today programme to deepen his struggle against a third runway at Heathrow. To supporters of the proposal, which Howard Davies's commission will consider, the Mayor of London declared: "you're completely wrong, you will be defeated."

Observing that almost every politician in London was elected on a mandate to rule out a third runway, he said it would be "politically toxic ... it will go down incredibly badly in London, it will lead to a significant erosion of the quality of life for the people in London." The problem with a third runway, he argued, is that a fourth would be soon be needed - and where would that go? He went on: "The runway at Heathrow simply will not happen ... There is absolutely no need for us to delay to 2015. Can I tell you, in the next nine years, how many runways they’re going to build in China? They’re going to build 52. How many in the UK? None at all. It is a policy of utter inertia."

The aim of the Davies report, as with most government inquiries, is to achieve a political consensus. But with Boris unequivocally opposed to a third runway (the preferred option of several senior ministers, including George Osborne) Labour sceptical (Ed Miliband almost resigned from the Brown government over the policy), and the Lib Dems opposed to any new runways at London's airports as well as "Boris island", there seems little prospect of that. Rarely has an inquiry been so undermined before it has even begun.

Mayor of London Boris Johnson said a third runway at Heathrow would be "a complete disaster for the people of London". Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Voters are turning against Brexit but the Lib Dems aren't benefiting

Labour's pro-Brexit stance is not preventing it from winning the support of Remainers. Will that change?

More than a year after the UK voted for Brexit, there has been little sign of buyer's remorse. The public, including around a third of Remainers, are largely of the view that the government should "get on with it".

But as real wages are squeezed (owing to the Brexit-linked inflationary spike) there are tentative signs that the mood is changing. In the event of a second referendum, an Opinium/Observer poll found, 47 per cent would vote Remain, compared to 44 per cent for Leave. Support for a repeat vote is also increasing. Forty one per cent of the public now favour a second referendum (with 48 per cent opposed), compared to 33 per cent last December. 

The Liberal Democrats have made halting Brexit their raison d'être. But as public opinion turns, there is no sign they are benefiting. Since the election, Vince Cable's party has yet to exceed single figures in the polls, scoring a lowly 6 per cent in the Opinium survey (down from 7.4 per cent at the election). 

What accounts for this disparity? After their near-extinction in 2015, the Lib Dems remain either toxic or irrelevant to many voters. Labour, by contrast, despite its pro-Brexit stance, has hoovered up Remainers (55 per cent back Jeremy Corbyn's party). 

In some cases, this reflects voters' other priorities. Remainers are prepared to support Labour on account of the party's stances on austerity, housing and education. Corbyn, meanwhile, is a eurosceptic whose internationalism and pro-migration reputation endear him to EU supporters. Other Remainers rewarded Labour MPs who voted against Article 50, rebelling against the leadership's stance. 

But the trend also partly reflects ignorance. By saying little on the subject of Brexit, Corbyn and Labour allowed Remainers to assume the best. Though there is little evidence that voters will abandon Corbyn over his EU stance, the potential exists.

For this reason, the proposal of a new party will continue to recur. By challenging Labour over Brexit, without the toxicity of Lib Dems, it would sharpen the choice before voters. Though it would not win an election, a new party could force Corbyn to soften his stance on Brexit or to offer a second referendum (mirroring Ukip's effect on the Conservatives).

The greatest problem for the project is that it lacks support where it counts: among MPs. For reasons of tribalism and strategy, there is no emergent "Gang of Four" ready to helm a new party. In the absence of a new convulsion, the UK may turn against Brexit without the anti-Brexiteers benefiting. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.