The Bank of England warns Osborne: prepare for a triple-dip recession

Osborne said the economy was "on the right track" but the Bank warns growth could disappear in Q4.

It was always unwise for George Osborne to cite the most recent set of growth figures as proof that "we're on the right track", principally because the good news is unlikely to last. Growth in quarter three, which stood at one per cent, was artificially inflated by the Olympics (which added 0.2 per cent to growth) and by the bounce back from the Jubilee bank holiday (which added 0.5 per cent). There was, as I wrote when the figures were published, a strong chance of a contraction in the fourth quarter.

Now the Bank of England has become the latest forecaster to warn of the possibility of a triple-dip recession. In its quarterly inflation report, it notes that

Headline outturns for GDP in 2012 have been, and will continue to be, volatile, with the data buffeted by one-off influences such as the Jubilee and the Olympics. In Q3, output increased by 1%. In Q4, that growth rate seems set to fall sharply as the boost from the Olympics is reversed; indeed, output may post a small decline [emphasis mine].

Having claimed that the economy is "healing", Osborne will struggle to explain why the patient has taken another turn for the worse.

George Osborne at an EU Economy and Finance Council meeting in Luxembourg. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Could Jeremy Corbyn still be excluded from the leadership race? The High Court will rule today

Labour donor Michael Foster has applied for a judgement. 

If you thought Labour's National Executive Committee's decision to let Jeremy Corbyn automatically run again for leader was the end of it, think again. 

Today, the High Court will decide whether the NEC made the right judgement - or if Corbyn should have been forced to seek nominations from 51 MPs, which would effectively block him from the ballot.

The legal challenge is brought by Michael Foster, a Labour donor and former parliamentary candidate. Corbyn is listed as one of the defendants.

Before the NEC decision, both Corbyn's team and the rebel MPs sought legal advice.

Foster has maintained he is simply seeking the views of experts. 

Nevertheless, he has clashed with Corbyn before. He heckled the Labour leader, whose party has been racked with anti-Semitism scandals, at a Labour Friends of Israel event in September 2015, where he demanded: "Say the word Israel."

But should the judge decide in favour of Foster, would the Labour leadership challenge really be over?

Dr Peter Catterall, a reader in history at Westminster University and a specialist in opposition studies, doesn't think so. He said: "The Labour party is a private institution, so unless they are actually breaking the law, it seems to me it is about how you interpret the rules of the party."

Corbyn's bid to be personally mentioned on the ballot paper was a smart move, he said, and the High Court's decision is unlikely to heal wounds.

 "You have to ask yourself, what is the point of doing this? What does success look like?" he said. "Will it simply reinforce the idea that Mr Corbyn is being made a martyr by people who are out to get him?"