Archbishop of Canterbury appointment revives Cameron's class problem

After being accused of running an "old Etonian" elite, the appointment of an Eton-educated Archbishop is awkward for Cameron.

In the week that David Cameron was accused by former Home Office mandarin Helen Ghosh of surrounding himself with an "old Etonian clique", the media has been quick to note that Justin Welby, who was revealed today as the new Archbishop of Canterbury, was educated at the school. Significantly, the Telegraph reports that there were "questions over whether an Eton-educated Archbishop would be well received in some quarters" and that these "played a part in delaying the final decision".

It appears likely, then, that Welby's education was, if anything, a hindrance, but his appointment, which will be officially announced by Downing Street (although Welby was selected by the 16-member Crown Nominations Commission), will inevitably be cited by some as evidence of favouritism. It will also prompt further discussion about the state of social mobility in Britain. It's notable that the Prime Minister, the Mayor of London and, now, the head of the Church are all Eton alumni. When was the establishment last so dominated by public school boys?

Welby's predecessor Rowan Williams is, of course, a former NS guest-editor (you can read his famous editorial attacking the government for pursuing "radical, long-term policies for which no one voted" here). Asked yesterday in Auckland, in what was his final press conference, what advice he would give to his successor he declared that the new Archbishop should preach "with a Bible in one hand and a newspaper in the other".

"You have to be cross-referencing all the time and saying, 'How does the vision of humanity and community in the Bible map onto these issues of poverty, privation, violence and conflict?'

"And you have to use what you read in the newspaper to prompt and direct the questions that you put to the Bible: 'Where is this going to help me?'

"So I think somebody who likes reading the Bible and likes reading newspapers would be a good start."

School students wearing their traditional school uniform line the top of a boundary wall at Eton College. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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