Osborne should beware of a triple-dip recession

The government shouldn't assume that "the good news will keep coming".

One can hardly blame the government for seeking to convince voters that today's GDP figures prove that we're "on the right track". Growth of 1 per cent in the third quarter, the highest quarterly growth rate since 2007, is superficially impressive (the bounce back from the bank holiday added around 0.5 per cent, while Olympic ticket sales added 0.2 per cent) and makes it easier for George Osborne to argue that the economy is "healing".

But to borrow Cameron's phrase from yesterday, the government shouldn't assume "that the good news will keep coming". A significant number of economists believe it is possible or even probable that the economy will contract in quarter four (in what our economics editor David Blanchflower has called a "triple-dip recession"). A combination of further spending cuts, rising energy prices, and recession in the eurozone means that growth is likely to remain anaemic or non-existent.

Vicky Redwood of Capital Economics, for instance, said:

As the Olympic effects unwind, it is still possible that the economy contracts again in Q4. Indeed, the business surveys have been painting a slightly gloomier picture, suggesting that underlying output is still stagnating or even falling slightly.

Chris Williamson of the data provider Markit, said:

The government will most likely make the most out of this good news, but unfortunately it is unlikely that the UK will see such a strong performance again for some time. In reality, the danger is that this figure fuels a misguided belief that the economy is on the mend, when in fact there is plenty of evidence to suggest that momentum is being lost again.

There is a real risk that a return to contraction might be seen again in the fourth quarter.

The irony is that a slightly weaker figure in this quarter, by reducing the risk of a slump in Q4, might have suited the government more.

Balloons featuring images of George Osborne at the Conservative conference in Birmingham earlier this month. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Listen: Schools Minister Nick Gibb gets SATs question for 11-year-olds wrong

Exams put too much pressure on children. And on the politicians who insist they don't put too much pressure on children.

As we know from today's news of a primary school exams boycott, or "kids' strike", it's tough being a schoolchild in Britain today. But apparently it's also tough being a Schools Minister.

Nick Gibb, Minister of State at the Department for Education, failed a SATs grammar question for 11-year-olds on the BBC's World at One today. Having spent all morning defending the primary school exams system - criticised by tens of thousands of parents for putting too much pressure on young children - he fell victim to the very test that has come under fire.

Listen here:

Martha Kearney: Let me give you this sentence, “I went to the cinema after I’d eaten my dinner”. Is the word "after" there being used as a subordinating conjunction or as a preposition?

Nick Gibb: Well, it’s a proposition. “After” - it's...

MK: [Laughing]: I don’t think it is...

NG: “After” is a preposition, it can be used in some contexts as a, as a, word that coordinates a subclause, but this isn’t about me, Martha...

MK: No, I think, in this sentence it’s being used a subordinating conjunction!

NG: Fine. This isn’t about me. This is about ensuring that future generations of children, unlike me, incidentally, who was not taught grammar at primary school...

MK: Perhaps not!

NG: ...we need to make sure that future generations are taught grammar properly.

I'm a mole, innit.