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Labour set for a landslide victory in Corby by-election

A new poll gives Ed Miliband's party a 22-point lead in Louise Mensch's former constituency.

By George Eaton Published 23 October 2012 9:08

Ed Miliband walks through Hyde Park. Photograph: Getty Images.

Ed Miliband walks through Hyde Park after addressing TUC members at an anti-austerity rally. Photograph: Getty Images.

When I suggested, following Louise Mensch's resignation, that Labour would walk to victory in the Corby by-election, the party's deputy chair Tom Watson cast doubt on my prediction, insisting that "Corby will be a very tough fight".

But Watson needn't have managed expectations. With just over three weeks to go until polling day on 15 November, Lord Ashcroft's second poll of voters in the constituency, conducted for ConservativeHome, suggests that Labour is on course for a landslide victory. Since Ashcroft's last survey, the party's lead over the Tories has risen by seven to 22 points, with Labour on 54 per cent (up from 39 per cent at the general election) and the Conservatives on 32 per cent (down from 42 per cent).

As Tim Montgomerie suggests, the poll is notable for demonstrating how a collapse in the Lib Dem vote at the next election could hurt the Tories the most. Support for the party in Corby has plummeted from 15 per cent in 2010 to just five per cent now, with the bulk of Lib Dem supporters defecting to Labour. If this trend is replicated in other seats, Ed Miliband's party can expect to pick up dozens of Con-Lab marginals. While the Tories are in second place in most Lib Dem seats (38 compared to 17 for Labour), they will struggle to make gains if, as expected, the Lib Dems benefit from an incumbency effect (the party's MPs are famed for their constituency work).

But for Labour, the omens are more encouraging. In seats where it is within touching distance of the Tories (and even some where it is not), a collapse in support for the third-placed Lib Dems will likely propel it into first place.

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Tags: Labour Conservatives Louise Mensch

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View the discussion thread.

16 comments

Fri, 2012-10-26 22:19 — Kev (not verified)

The BNP are not the only racists standing in the Corby By-election, there is another one, bizarrely enough standing for the Cannabis Party called Peter Reynolds. He's actually such a fool, he makes for good comedy, - google Peter Reynolds Watch

Tue, 2012-10-23 22:03 — Fraziel1

Why does being Scottish make you simple minded Robert or are you a racist? Seems like a profoundly racist thing to say to associate intelligence with race. However, it appears that you are the one that is simple minded as your theory cannot hold water or else labour would also have won at the general election. I am all for freedom of speech but there really is no need to be such a prick.

Wed, 2012-10-24 11:07 — Robert Taggart

All those ex steelworks Jocks - still living there some thirty years after the demise of steel making - provide Liebore with a bedrock electoral base.
It be the indigenous English minority who 'swing' the vote in Corby. Rather tellingly, after three years of hard Liebore - under a Jock - they swung back to their 'own kind' !
Those working class, simple minded, state dependent Jocks - always vote Liebore - they know no better !

Tue, 2012-10-23 16:56 — Whoosh oleander (not verified)

mid term by-election blah blah blah.blah,blah blah blah,we expected to lose blah blah.

Tue, 2012-10-23 16:27 — Robert Taggart

Considering the large number of Simpleminded Scottish ex-pats living in that town - anything but a Liebore victory would be surprising !

Tue, 2012-10-23 16:04 — Lucidus (not verified)

"the party's MPs are famed for their constituency work"
Not quite, the Lib Dems are famed for putting out leaflets saying they do a lot of constituency work. The reality is rather different.

Tue, 2012-10-23 15:27 — Des Demona (not verified)

Wot? No Tory trolls yet? Most unusual.
However I suspect Ashcroft's poll has massaged the numbers to give Labour a huge lead so that come the result they will be able to say 'Ha! They should have had a 22% lead and it was only 16% - a disasterous day for Labour.'

Watch this space.

Tue, 2012-10-23 16:29 — Robert Taggart

Watching !

Tue, 2012-10-23 15:21 — John Woods (not verified)

Now is the time for the "Education, education, education" sound bites from Ed Miliband. It is also time for discrete releases of economic and fiscal policies like "we will encourage the building of 200,000 houses a year in areas of greatest social housing need by offering low interest deposits to families on the social housing register". Come on Ed, copy Blair just a little, place the argument between Osborne and his supporters where it hurts the most. Destroy his credibility with those of the middle class with a conscience and you are home.

Tue, 2012-10-23 14:21 — Steve E. (not verified)

Hussah!

Tue, 2012-10-23 09:49 — SeptimusBrope (not verified)

And where's the much vaunted UKIP in all this ?

Sat, 2012-10-27 21:49 — deadpan (not verified)

open your ears eyes and mind and you may find them

Sat, 2012-10-27 21:49 — deadpan (not verified)

open your ears eyes and mind and you may find them

Wed, 2012-10-24 00:52 — Posh Tosh (not verified)

They are kipping again!

The only time they come out in force is when the election bus is rolling freewheel for its European voters and European backers.

Tue, 2012-10-23 09:25 — frances smith

in some ways its quite interesting to read the comment by tim montgomerie and realise that the tory party seems to think that it can declare war on the british people and still quite understand why they can't win the next election.

when they are at the stage where even the police federation are seen as enemies of the tory party they do need to ask themselves questions about who is going to vote for them.

Tue, 2012-10-23 09:26 — frances smith

they should be "not" between still and quite.