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Good news on unemployment - but will it last?

Unemployment has fallen to 7.9 per cent - but it's expected to rise next year.

By George Eaton Published 17 October 2012 10:46

Prime Minister David Cameron leaves 10 Downing Street. Photograph: Getty Images.

The fall in unemployment is a boost for David Cameron ahead of today's Prime Minister's Questions. Photograph: Getty Images.

Ahead of the first PMQs since the conference season, the latest employment figures offer a much-needed boost for David Cameron. Unemployment fell from 8.1 per cent to 7.9 per cent (or from 2.58m to 2.53m) over the last quarter, the lowest level since May 2011, while employment rose by 212,000 to 29.6 million, the highest level ever recorded. Similarly encouraging is the news that, for the first time in a year, youth unemployment is back below a million - it fell 62,000 to 957,000 (or from 21.8 per cent to 20.5 per cent) .

However, it's worth noting that 59 per cent (125,000) of the 212,000 new jobs created are part-time and that London was responsible for nearly half (101,000) of the rise in employment (a total of 1.4 million people are working part-time because they can't find full-time jobs), suggesting that the labour market received a temporary boost from the Olympics. The jobless rate rose by 0.2 per cent in Scotland and by 1.2 per cent in Northern Ireland. In addition, 6 per cent (13,000) of the 212,000 jobs are on "government supported training and employment programmes". In the last year, the number of people on these programs has risen by 89 per cent.

In addition, as I've pointed out before, unemployment is expected to rise next year to 2.7m owing to further spending cuts, a lack of growth, and rising productivity. For now, however, Cameron can promote a narrative of recovery.

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Tags: Unemployment David Cameron Conservatives

More from George Eaton

View the discussion thread.

13 comments

Wed, 2012-10-17 21:24 — mamamia (not verified)

Here is an example. This guy who has been unemployed for a while. He has also done some so called "training schemes" where private providers get unbelievable amounts to supervise them sat in a room playing computer games!!
Now he is working!! but still on benefits getting £10 a day on top of what he was getting.
Financial sector created this problem and taxpayers subsidizing them. Now it seems taxpayers subsidizing a lot of other companies a swell.
Government is shoving it down our throat that its nothing wrong with being rich and not only they should not be picked on but they should be helped as well.
But it does matter very much how these people are making their wealth.
And when its all lost will they realize that they cant eat money!!

Wed, 2012-10-17 15:16 — Mr Bingham (not verified)

The welfare bill is increasing ?

It's all an illusion because we are now becoming a nation of part time workers that make up our wages through claiming a number of other benefits incliding housing benefit.

This Government rewards companies that dish out plenty of part time work with government payments and possibly tax breaks so that they can claim that unemployment has dropped.

The reality is that you are forced into taking up insecure part time work that offers no workers rights package and you could be layed off tomorrow. This actually saves companies lots of money whilst the Government boasts of drop in unemployment.

The penny will drop soon and people will realise that we have been cleverly brain washed and taken for a ride. Just look because the welfare bill has risen because more money has been claimed in benefits because partr time work has covered the reality.

These Tories are clever con men.

Wed, 2012-10-17 15:15 — Mr Bingham (not verified)

The welfare bill is increasing ?

It's all an illusion because we are now becoming a nation of part time workers that make up our wages through claiming a number of other benefits incliding housing benefit.

This Government rewards companies that dish out plenty of part time work with government payments and possibly tax breaks so that they can claim that unemployment has dropped.

These Tories are clever con men.

Wed, 2012-10-17 14:21 — Indu Pendent

EMERGENCY
Call an ambulance someone, George is choking.

George, I dont get it, could you explain. Recruitment into the public sector has been slowed right down so that the state is shrinking. Yet employment is rising and unemployment is falling.

Do you think their are strong parrellels between Labour criticising the coalition's fiscal tightening and the left wing lambasting that Clinton endured from his own party for doing the same thing? "If .... " . Didnt stop him.

(clue: the answer is AAA and low interest rates)

Wed, 2012-10-17 13:42 — Obi Wan Kenobi (not verified)

I really hope Cameron and Co. realise they are never going to win the next general election, enjoy your next 2.5 years in office because after that - your history.

This coalition government is the most sickest, nastiest and none caring government of the last 100 years, I hope you all end up on the dole, then you can experience Iain Duncan Smiths vision for benefit claimants - firsthand.

You disgust me.

Wed, 2012-10-17 13:26 — Obi Wan Kenobi (not verified)

If you look into these unemployed figures falling, you'll find that the government are yet again lying to you.

The main reason it looks like unemployment has fallen is due to the thousand upon thousands of unemployed being put on the governments WORK PROGRAMME, because once on it you are removed form the claimant count, even though your still signing on and getting Jobseekers Allowance.

Cooking the books, Spin, call it what you want, at the end of the day the taxpayers are being openly lied to by the government - again.

Wed, 2012-10-17 11:37 — Gareth Bouch (not verified)

As per the previous commenters, I'd love to know what particular definitions and exclusions go to deliver this figure; fairly confident it's a complete nonsense and doesn't genuinely reflect the dire state of employment in the UK.

Wed, 2012-10-17 11:10 — Barrie J (not verified)

I have as much faith in these numbers as I do in yesterday's inflation figures.
Could someone better informed than I please tell me how many different ways governments have measured unemployment since 1979?
I have a feeling it was about 26 at the last count.

Wed, 2012-10-17 11:38 — Lucidus (not verified)

From memory, the Thatcher government revised the methods for calculating unemployment figures 27 times and the vast majority of these revisions had the happy effect of reducing the headline unemployment figure.