Cameron's housing benefit myths debunked

New report shows that the number of working people claiming housing benefit has risen by 86 per cent in three years.

David Cameron and George Osborne are fond of describing housing benefit as a payment for the unemployed. Recently challenged on his plan to abolish the benefit for the under-25s, Cameron said:

We should ask this question about housing benefit: if you're a young person and you work hard at college, you get a job, you're living at home with mum and dad, you can't move out, you can't access housing benefit [emphasis mine].

And yet, actually, if you choose not to work, you can get housing benefit, you can get a flat. And having got that, you're unlikely then to want a job because you're in danger of losing your housing benefit and your flat. We have to look at the signals we send and I think we should have a system where we say 'you shouldn't be better off out of work than in work'. The system doesn't work today, so we need to reform it.

By portraying housing benefit as a payment for "the shirkers", not "the strivers", Cameron and Osborne aim to convince the public that their unprecedented welfare cuts are justified. But the truth is that the benefit is increasingly claimed by the working poor, the very group that Cameron purports to care so much about.

Today's report from the National Housing Federation, Home Truths, shows that the number of working people forced to rely on housing benefit to pay their rent has increased by 417,830 (86 per cent) in the last three years, a figure that is rising at a rate of nearly 10,000 a month. Ninety three per cent of new claims last year were made by households containing at least one employed adult. By 2015, a total of 1.2 million working people people will only be able to stay in their homes through state subsidy.

As the figures suggest, it is excessive rents and substandard wages that are to blame for the inflated housing benefit budget (which will reach £23.2bn this year), not workshy "scroungers". The cost of privately renting a home has increased by 37 per cent in the past five years, and is set to rise by a further 35 per cent over the next six years. With 390,000 new families formed in 2011, but only 111,250 new homes built, rents have inevitably soared as demand has outstripped supply.

Rather than making housing benefit ever more restrictive, Cameron should act to lower rents and increase wages (when did you last hear him speak of a "living wage"?). Punitive cuts to welfare might win the Tories favourable headlines in the right-wing press, but this approach will do nothing to help "the strivers".

David Cameron visits a building site in Victoria, where he met a number of apprentices on October 18, 2012 in London. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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