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Conservative in a leather jacket

Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, Mayor of Tehran

The mayoralty of Tehran was the springboard to the Iranian presidency for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - and it could work the same way for his successor. Ahmadinejad ran Iran's chaotic capital for two years, curtailing many of the freedoms introduced by the reformist administration that preceded him, before he was elected president in June 2005. Now, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf - the current mayor, a defeated candidate in the 2005 elections, and one of Ahmadinejad's greatest political rivals - has revived his ambitions for the presidential race of 12 June 2009.

The timing is critical. Despite clerical Schadenfreude at the west's financial misfortunes, Iran is facing its own crisis. Falling prices have hit its oil-dependent economy hard, unemployment is rising and inflation stands at almost 30 per cent. With elections approaching, Ahmadinejad, whose disdain for conventional economics is well known, is vulnerable. Could a Qalibaf-led Iran, in partnership with Barack Obama's new administration, restore international confidence in the country's economy and thaw the antagonism that marked the Bush-Ahmadinejad years?

In personal style at least, Qalibaf, a 47-year-old academic, politician and former police chief, is the suave antithesis of the current president. Where Ahmadinejad launches intemperate attacks on Israel and the west, and lavishes oil revenues on short-term, populist "charitable" schemes, Qalibaf is diplomatic and fiscally prudent. While Ahmadinejad's rough-and-ready manner is the despair of Iran's urban elite, Qalibaf has gone out of his way to court them. He is pro-foreign investment and pro-dialogue: with his assertion that Iran "doesn't need" nuclear weapons, he would likely prove a more reasonable and congenial negotiating partner for the west.

The rivals' backgrounds are very different. Unlike the president, who spent years as a minor bureaucrat, Qalibaf has a highly polished CV. In his early twenties, he became a high-level Revolutionary Guard commander in the war against Iraq, then the general in charge of the Revolutionary Guard air force. After the war, he studied for a PhD in political geography and, in 1999, was named head of the Iranian law-enforcement agency NAJA. As a police chief, Qalibaf opened up the force to include female recruits and gained a reputation for dealing less severely with students and dissidents than his brutal predecessors, whose mishandling of widespread public protests in 1999 had led to his own appointment.

Standing as a centrist presidential candidate in 2005, Qalibaf came fourth in an election that ended in a run-off between Ahmadinejad and the moderate ex-president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Shortly afterwards, he secured Ahmadinejad's old job as mayor of Tehran and set about consolidating his reputation for efficiency and pragmatism. In contrast to the former mayor, who has a fondness for schemes such as separate elevators for men and women, he has devoted his time to major infrastructure projects and to popular initiatives: building cinemas and football pitches, improving Tehran's bus network and waste collection.

It is possible that, in a national election, these urban credentials could work against him. In 2005, Ahmadinejad was able to secure the hardline rural, veteran and Basij (Islamic paramilitary) votes that eluded his opponent. Even the mayor's groomed and leather-jacketed appearance may alienate conservatives and less affluent provincial voters, who prefer clerical robes or a more sober revolutionary style. But Qalibaf is no liberal. He describes himself as an "authoritarian moderniser" and is close to Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, whose willingness to grant him private audiences helped secure his re-election as mayor in 2007.

The rivals spent 2008 trying to outmanoeuvre each other. Last January, Qalibaf used a visit to the World Economic Forum in Davos to hint at criticisms of Ahmadinejad, build relations with other leaders and underline his openness to the international community. In July, the president banned an edition of Hamshahri, a newspaper owned by the Tehran municipality, for linking him to Iran's economic problems. Recently, presidential supporters have accused the mayor of fanning rumours that Ahmadinejad's failing health could prevent him running for a second term.

So far, the only officially declared candidate is Mehdi Karroubi, a reformist former speaker of the Majlis, the national parliament. Apart from Ahmadinejad, Qalibaf is likely to face, on the moderate side, the former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi and the former president Mohammad Khatami; and on his own, conservative side, another former speaker, Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel. But the scattered and weakened reformists are unlikely to do well; in Iran the battle is between the conservatives. If Qalibaf's small concessions to the outside world carry the day, we will hear fewer inflammatory insults - such as Ahmadinejad's dismissal of Israel as a "dirty microbe". As the mayor puts it: "We can talk to the world in much better ways." If confrontation with Iran is to be avoided, a man prepared to initiate conversation with the west could be a good start.

Rachel Aspden is a contributing editor of the New Statesman

This article first appeared in the 12 January 2009 issue of the New Statesman, The destruction of Gaza

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The French millennials marching behind Marine Le Pen

A Front National rally attracts former socialists with manicured beards, and a lesbian couple. 

“In 85 days, Marine will be President of the French Republic!” The 150-strong crowd cheered at the sound of the words. On stage, the speaker, the vice-president of the far-right Front National (FN), Florian Philippot, continued: “We will be told that it’s the apocalypse, by the same banks, media, politicians, who were telling the British that Brexit would be an immediate catastrophe.

"Well, they voted, and it’s not! The British are much better off than we are!” The applause grew louder and louder. 

I was in the medieval city of Metz, in a municipal hall near the banks of the Moselle River, a tributary of the Rhine from which the region takes its name. The German border lies 49km east; Luxembourg City is less than an hour’s drive away. This is the "Country of the Three Borders", equidistant from Strasbourg and Frankfurt, and French, German and French again after various wars. Yet for all that local history is deeply rooted in the wider European history, votes for the Front National rank among the highest nationally, and continue to rise at every poll. 

In rural Moselle, “Marine”, as the Front National leader Marine Le Pen is known, has an envoy. In 2014, the well-spoken, elite-educated Philippot, 35, ran for mayor in Forbach, a former miner’s town near the border. He lost to the Socialist candidate but has visited regularly since. Enough for the locals to call him “Florian".

I grew up in a small town, Saint-Avold, halfway between Metz and Forbach. When my grandfather was working in the then-prosperous coal mines, the Moselle region attracted many foreign workers. Many of my fellow schoolmates bore Italian and Polish surnames. But the last mine closed in 2004, and now, some of the immigrants’ grandchildren are voting for the National Front.

Returning, I can't help but wonder: How did my generation, born with the Maastricht treaty, end up turning to the Eurosceptic, hard right FN?

“We’ve seen what the other political parties do – it’s always the same. We must try something else," said Candice Bertrand, 23, She might not be part of the group asking Philippot for selfies, but she had voted FN at every election, and her family agreed. “My mum was a Communist, then voted for [Nicolas] Sarkozy, and now she votes FN. She’s come a long way.”  The way, it seemed, was political distrust.

Minutes earlier, Philippot had pleaded with the audience to talk to their relatives and neighbours. Bertrand had brought her girlfriend, Lola, whom she was trying to convince to vote FN.  Lola wouldn’t give her surname – her strongly left-wing family would “certainly not” like to know she was there. She herself had never voted.

This infuriated Bertrand. “Women have fought for the right to vote!” she declared. Daily chats with Bertrand and her family had warmed up Lola to voting Le Pen in the first round, although not yet in the second. “I’m scared of a major change,” she confided, looking lost. “It’s a bit too extreme.” Both were too young to remember 2002, when a presidential victory for the then-Front National leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, was only a few percentage points away.

Since then, under the leadership of his daughter, Marine, the FN has broken every record. But in this region, the FN’s success isn’t new. In 2002, when liberal France was shocked to see Le Pen reach the second round of the presidential election, the FN was already sailing in Moselle. Le Pen grabbed 23.7 per cent of the Moselle vote in the first round and 21.9 per cent in the second, compared to 16.9 per cent and 17.8 per cent nationally. 

The far-right vote in Moselle remained higher than the national average before skyrocketing in 2012. By then, the younger, softer-looking Marine had taken over the party. In that year, the FN won an astonishing 24.7 per cent of the Moselle vote, and 17.8 per cent nationwide.

For some people of my generation, the FN has already provided opportunities. With his manicured beard and chic suit, Emilien Noé still looks like the Young Socialist he was between 16 and 18 years old. But looks can be deceiving. “I have been disgusted by the internal politics at the Socialist Party, the lack of respect for the low-ranked campaigners," he told me. So instead, he stood as the FN’s youngest national candidate to become mayor in his village, Gosselming, in 2014. “I entered directly into action," he said. (He lost). Now, at just 21, Noé is the FN’s youth coordinator for Eastern France.

Metz, Creative Commons licence credit Morgaine

Next to him stood Kevin Pfeiffer, 27. He told me he used to believe in the Socialist ideal, too - in 2007, as a 17-year-old, he backed Ségolène Royal against Sarkozy. But he is now a FN local councillor and acts as the party's general co-ordinator in the region. Both Noé and Pfeiffer radiated a quiet self-confidence, the sort that such swift rises induces. They shared a deep respect for the young-achiever-in-chief: Philippot. “We’re young and we know we can have perspectives in this party without being a graduate of l’ENA,” said another activist, Olivier Musci, 24. (The elite school Ecole Nationale d’Administration, or ENA, is considered something of a mandatory finishing school for politicians. It counts Francois Hollande and Jacques Chirac among its alumni. Ironically, Philippot is one, too.)

“Florian” likes to say that the FN scores the highest among the young. “Today’s youth have not grown up in a left-right divide”, he told me when I asked why. “The big topics, for them, were Maastricht, 9/11, the Chinese competition, and now Brexit. They have grown up in a political world structured around two poles: globalism versus patriotism.” Notably, half his speech was dedicated to ridiculing the FN's most probably rival, the maverick centrist Emmanuel Macron. “It is a time of the nations. Macron is the opposite of that," Philippot declared. 

At the rally, the blue, red and white flame, the FN’s historic logo, was nowhere to be seen. Even the words “Front National” had deserted the posters, which were instead plastered with “in the name of the people” slogans beneath Marine’s name and large smile. But everyone wears a blue rose at the buttonhole. “It’s the synthesis between the left’s rose and the right’s blue colour”, Pfeiffer said. “The symbol of the impossible becoming possible.” So, neither left nor right? I ask, echoing Macron’s campaign appeal. “Or both left and right”, Pfeiffer answered with a grin.

This nationwide rebranding follows years of efforts to polish the party’s jackass image, forged by decades of xenophobic, racist and anti-Semitic declarations by Le Pen Sr. His daughter evicted him from the party in 2015.

Still, Le Pen’s main pledges revolve around the same issue her father obsessed over - immigration. The resources spent on "dealing with migrants" will, Le Pen promises, be redirected to address the concerns of "the French people". Unemployment, which has been hovering at 10 per cent for years, is very much one of them. Moselle's damaged job market is a booster for the FN - between 10 and 12 per cent of young people are unemployed.

Yet the two phenomena cannot always rationally be linked. The female FN supporters I met candidly admitted they drove from France to Luxembourg every day for work and, like many locals, often went shopping in Germany. Yet they hoped to see the candidate of “Frexit” enter the Elysee palace in May. “We've never had problems to work in Luxembourg. Why would that change?” asked Bertrand. (Le Pen's “144 campaign pledges” promise frontier workers “special measures” to cross the border once out of the Schengen area, which sounds very much like the concept of the Schengen area itself.)

Grégoire Laloux, 21, studied history at the University of Metz. He didn't believe in the European Union. “Countries have their own interests. There are people, but no European people,” he said. “Marine is different because she defends patriotism, sovereignty, French greatness and French history.” He compared Le Pen to Richelieu, the cardinal who made Louis XIV's absolute monarchy possible:  “She, too, wants to build a modern state.”

French populists are quick to link the country's current problems to immigration, and these FN supporters were no exception. “With 7m poor and unemployed, we can't accept all the world's misery,” Olivier Musci, 24, a grandchild of Polish and Italian immigrants, told me. “Those we welcome must serve the country and be proud to be here.”

Lola echoed this call for more assimilation. “At our shopping centre, everyone speaks Arabic now," she said. "People have spat on us, thrown pebbles at us because we're lesbians. But I'm in my country and I have the right to do what I want.” When I asked if the people who attacked them were migrants, she was not so sure. “Let's say, they weren't white.”

Trump promised to “Make America Great Again”. To where would Le Pen's France return? Would it be sovereign again? White again? French again? Ruled by absolutism again? She has blurred enough lines to seduce voters her father never could – the young, the gay, the left-wingers. At the end of his speech, under the rebranded banners, Philippot invited the audience to sing La Marseillaise with him. And in one voice they did: “To arms citizens! Form your battalions! March, march, let impure blood, water our furrows...” The song is the same as the one I knew growing up. But it seemed to me, this time, a more sinister tune.