A contrived autumn relaunch with new faces and catchphrases will not fool voters into believing it is a different party

When the Grand Pier at Weston-super-Mare was consumed by fire, Gordon Brown may have muttered a prayer of gratitude. Given his current run of misfortune, it would have been no surprise if it had been the pier at Southwold that had gone up in smoke just as he arrived there for his holiday. At least he can't be blamed for Weston's bad luck.

Brown and his party are benefiting from a more palpable piece of good fortune, in that the crisis precipitated by the Glasgow East by-election defeat coincides with the summer recess. They have weeks, rather than days, in which to decide what must be done. They don't get many such breaks, and they must not waste this one.

Even allowing for the hyperbole of political commentators and the excitability of backbenchers, this is an exceptionally dark hour for the Labour Party. Warnings in opinion polls that the government is extremely unpopular stand confirmed in ever-worsening by-election results. If things do not improve, not only does Labour face electoral disaster, but it will struggle to put that disaster off until 2010.

What can party leaders do about this between now and the autumn? As so often, it is easier to say what they should not do, which is to allow themselves, through squabbling, to be drawn into a sort of political Big Brother. Patience and reason are needed, and here David Miliband appears to be setting the right tone.

Realism is also required. They need to recognise that it is highly unlikely that any action they take now will be sufficient to win the next election, whenever it comes. This is not to say that the election is necessarily lost, merely that voters are in such a mood that no alteration in the shape of the government, however radical, would be enough to change their view. They dislike Labour and want it out of power. The only things that might change their minds are precisely the things which ministers have no power to arrange: Harold Macmillan's "events". Whether it be a twist in the global economy, a drama in the Conservative Party or some other deus ex machina, Labour's best hope is a shock that jolts the electorate into a reappraisal.

This is not an argument for doing nothing; instead it presents Labour leaders with some clear strategic objectives to work towards. The government that emerges from this summer must be sufficiently coherent and dynamic to take the fullest advantage of any better political weather that turns up. And the party must be organised, led and prepared in such a way that, even if the weather does not change, there is no risk of the kind of wipeout that befell the Tories in 1997.

There are also some more short-term imperatives. The government must stop making things worse for itself. Difficult as this may be at a time when it appears that ministers are routinely damned if they do and damned if they don't, a way must be found. And Labour must put more pressure on the Conservatives, who never seem to be damned at all, richly though they deserve it.

Tempting as it is for pundits, bookies and the more excitable MPs to believe that this all comes down to the question of who leads the party, that is an illusion. To make the point again, a contrived autumn relaunch, with new faces and new catchphrases, will not fool a single voter into believing that this is a different party from the one whose popularity has been declining for five years.

Yes, leadership is part of the argument, and the options should be reviewed, but a change of leader is not in itself a solution. Indeed, if a leadership fight turned ugly, as it so easily could, that would be utterly disastrous for Labour. And just as it is not all about leadership, nor is it merely about presentation. Before you can have presentation, you need policies; you need to be ready to do things and make choices that are worth talking about.

All being well, a few quiet weeks lie ahead. Those who lead the Labour Party should use them to work out, in a cool and businesslike fashion, how to achieve these four objectives: to equip the government to take advantage of any upturn in its fortunes; to ensure there can be no electoral wipeout; to cut out the political clumsiness; and to push the Tories into the spotlight.

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