Opinionomics: must-read analysis and comment

Can't handle the heat? Maybe the Tea Party isn't for you.

1. Tea Party can thank the sun for success (Bloomberg View)

Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers write about an interesting finding to do with the original Tea Party protests in 2009.

2. We need more housing urgently, but not at any cost (Guardian)

The government must resist the anti-development lobby to get more houses built and use local councils to drive change, writes Peter Hetherington.

3. Mystery over delay in top-rate tax cut (BBC)

Robert Peston mulls over the possiblity of the cut in income tax being delayed.

4. Let’s say it now – general anti-avoidance rules increase certainty and are good for honest business (Tax Research UK)

Richard Murphy comes out to bat for a general anti-avoidance rule (which he doesn't think will be in the budget).

5. World GDP (Graphic Detail)

The world’s economic growth continued to slow in the final quarter of 2011, as Graphic Detail shows.

Sunrise over Salisbury: Does our cloudy weather stop protests? Credit: Getty

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

Photo: Getty
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Who will win the Copeland by-election?

Labour face a tricky task in holding onto the seat. 

What’s the Copeland by-election about? That’s the question that will decide who wins it.

The Conservatives want it to be about the nuclear industry, which is the seat’s biggest employer, and Jeremy Corbyn’s long history of opposition to nuclear power.

Labour want it to be about the difficulties of the NHS in Cumbria in general and the future of West Cumberland Hospital in particular.

Who’s winning? Neither party is confident of victory but both sides think it will be close. That Theresa May has visited is a sign of the confidence in Conservative headquarters that, win or lose, Labour will not increase its majority from the six-point lead it held over the Conservatives in May 2015. (It’s always more instructive to talk about vote share rather than raw numbers, in by-elections in particular.)

But her visit may have been counterproductive. Yes, she is the most popular politician in Britain according to all the polls, but in visiting she has added fuel to the fire of Labour’s message that the Conservatives are keeping an anxious eye on the outcome.

Labour strategists feared that “the oxygen” would come out of the campaign if May used her visit to offer a guarantee about West Cumberland Hospital. Instead, she refused to answer, merely hyping up the issue further.

The party is nervous that opposition to Corbyn is going to supress turnout among their voters, but on the Conservative side, there is considerable irritation that May’s visit has made their task harder, too.

Voters know the difference between a by-election and a general election and my hunch is that people will get they can have a free hit on the health question without risking the future of the nuclear factory. That Corbyn has U-Turned on nuclear power only helps.

I said last week that if I knew what the local paper would look like between now and then I would be able to call the outcome. Today the West Cumbria News & Star leads with Downing Street’s refusal to answer questions about West Cumberland Hospital. All the signs favour Labour. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.