Opinionomics: must-read analysis and comment

Featuring the mafia, mortgages and monetary policy.

1. You can't buck the market: David Cameron's NewBuy scheme will push house prices up (Telegraph)

Ian Cowie assesses the likely effects of Cameron's plan to subsidise the creation of 95 per cent mortgages.

2. How the Depression Made Keynesians of Capitalists: Echoes (Bloomberg)

Kenneth Lipartito writes about the failure of the first proto-Keynesians to fully internalise the lessons they had learnt, and how it almost took a second depression to undestand how to build prosperity.

3. Property rights and the economic origins of the Sicilian mafia (FT alphaville)

A brief overview of a fascinating new paper arguing that the mafia arose in Western Sicily due to a unique confluence of weak property rights, valuable produce, and collapsing feudalism.

4. Economic update – March 2012: External events key to any recovery (Left Foot Forward)

Tony Dolphin presents his monthly overview of the key economic indicators, and what they tell us about the state of the nation.

5. Inflation Solution: Will the Fed Cage the Hawks? (Fiscal Times)

Mark Thoma previews the choices likely to face the Fed's monetary policy committee as it meets this week to determine interest rates.

A fiscal hawk chases a monetary hare. Credit: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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To stop Jeremy Corbyn, I am giving my second preference to Andy Burnham

The big question is whether Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper will face Jeremy in the final round of this election.

Voting is now underway in the Labour leadership election. There can be no doubt that Jeremy Corbyn is the frontrunner, but the race isn't over yet.

I know from conversations across the country that many voters still haven't made up their mind.

Some are drawn to Jeremy's promises of a new Jerusalem and endless spending, but worried that these endless promises, with no credibility, will only serve to lose us the next general election.

Others are certain that a Jeremy victory is really a win for Cameron and Osborne, but don't know who is the best alternative to vote for.

I am supporting Liz Kendall and will give her my first preference. But polling data is brutally clear: the big question is whether Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper will face Jeremy in the final round of this election.

Andy can win. He can draw together support from across the party, motivated by his history of loyalty to the Labour movement, his passionate appeal for unity in fighting the Tories, and the findings of every poll of the general public in this campaign that he is best placed candidate to win the next general election.

Yvette, in contrast, would lose to Jeremy Corbyn and lose heavily. Evidence from data collected by all the campaigns – except (apparently) Yvette's own – shows this. All publicly available polling shows the same. If Andy drops out of the race, a large part of the broad coalition he attracts will vote for Jeremy. If Yvette is knocked out, her support firmly swings behind Andy.

We will all have our views about the different candidates, but the real choice for our country is between a Labour government and the ongoing rightwing agenda of the Tories.

I am in politics to make a real difference to the lives of my constituents. We are all in the Labour movement to get behind the beliefs that unite all in our party.

In the crucial choice we are making right now, I have no doubt that a vote for Jeremy would be the wrong choice – throwing away the next election, and with it hope for the next decade.

A vote for Yvette gets the same result – her defeat by Jeremy, and Jeremy's defeat to Cameron and Osborne.

In the crucial choice between Yvette and Andy, Andy will get my second preference so we can have the best hope of keeping the fight for our party alive, and the best hope for the future of our country too.

Tom Blenkinsop is the Labour MP for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland