Opinionomics: must-read analysis and comment

Featuring the mafia, mortgages and monetary policy.

1. You can't buck the market: David Cameron's NewBuy scheme will push house prices up (Telegraph)

Ian Cowie assesses the likely effects of Cameron's plan to subsidise the creation of 95 per cent mortgages.

2. How the Depression Made Keynesians of Capitalists: Echoes (Bloomberg)

Kenneth Lipartito writes about the failure of the first proto-Keynesians to fully internalise the lessons they had learnt, and how it almost took a second depression to undestand how to build prosperity.

3. Property rights and the economic origins of the Sicilian mafia (FT alphaville)

A brief overview of a fascinating new paper arguing that the mafia arose in Western Sicily due to a unique confluence of weak property rights, valuable produce, and collapsing feudalism.

4. Economic update – March 2012: External events key to any recovery (Left Foot Forward)

Tony Dolphin presents his monthly overview of the key economic indicators, and what they tell us about the state of the nation.

5. Inflation Solution: Will the Fed Cage the Hawks? (Fiscal Times)

Mark Thoma previews the choices likely to face the Fed's monetary policy committee as it meets this week to determine interest rates.

A fiscal hawk chases a monetary hare. Credit: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

David Cameron speaks at a press conference following an EU summit in Brussels. Photograph: Getty Images.
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Cameron's EU concessions show that he wants to avoid an illegitimate victory

The Prime Minister is confident of winning but doesn't want the result to be open to challenge. 

Jeremy Corbyn's remarkable surge has distracted attention from what will be the biggest political event of the next 18 months: the EU referendum. But as the new political season begins, it is returning to prominence. In quick succession, two significant changes have been made to the vote, which must be held before the end of 2017 and which most expect next year.

When the Electoral Commission yesterday recommended that the question be changed from “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?” ("Yes"/"No") to "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" ("Leave"/"Remain"), No.10 immediately gave way. The Commission had warned that "Whilst voters understood the question in the Bill some campaigners and members of the public feel the wording is not balanced and there was a perception of bias." 

Today, the government will table amendments which reverse its previous refusal to impose a period of "purdah" during the referendum. This would have allowed government departments to continue to publish promotional material relating to the EU throughout the voting period. But after a rebellion by 27 Tory eurosceptics (only Labour's abstention prevented a defeat), ministers have agreed to impose neutrality (with some exemptions for essential business). No taxpayers' money will be spent on ads or mailshots that cast the EU in a positive light. The public accounts commitee had warned that the reverse position would "cast a shadow of doubt over the propriety" of the referendum.

Both changes, then, have one thing in common: David Cameron's desire for the result to be seen as legitimate and unquestionable. The Prime Minister is confident of winning the vote but recognises the danger that his opponents could frame this outcome as "rigged" or "stitched-up". By acceding to their demands, he has made it far harder for them to do so. More concessions are likely to follow. Cameron has yet to agree to allow Conservative ministers to campaign against EU membership (as Harold Wilson did in 1975). Most Tory MPs, however, expect him to do so. He will be mocked and derided as "weak" for doing so. But if the PM can secure a lasting settlement, one that is regarded as legitimate and definitive, it will be more than worth it. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.