Opinionomics: Cream of the commentators

The best of the blogs and op-eds from this morning and last night

1. Will there be a British Business Bank? (BBC)

Following the leak of Vince Cable's letter to the Chancellor, and the Treasury acknowledging that he was overruled, Robert Peston asks, "what is the state of play on the government's ambition to correct the perceived lack of credit for small and medium-sized businesses?"

2. Recalculating Romney’s Four Percent Gimmick (The Cato Institute)

Christopher Preble takes a look, from a hard-libertarian angle, at Mitt Romney's promise to spend 4 per cent of GDP on the military.

3. Can Matter succeed? (Reuters)

Felix Salmond looks at innovative new journalism startup Matter, and debates whether or not it has a chance.

4. Knights, damsels, and tax-advantaged debt buybacks (FT alphaville)

Lisa Pollack explains exactly what the dodgy tax deal that sparked Barclay's wrist-slapping from HMRC involved, saying, "It’s as if the Knights dressed up as Damsels and rescued themselves."

5. Scale models (Free Exchange)

The Economist explains the importance of transport costs and returns to scale in looking at where future economic activity is likely to end up.

Vince Cable arrives for a cabinet meeting. Credit: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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Will Jeremy Corbyn stand down if Labour loses the general election?

Defeat at the polls might not be the end of Corbyn’s leadership.

The latest polls suggest that Labour is headed for heavy defeat in the June general election. Usually a general election loss would be the trigger for a leader to quit: Michael Foot, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband all stood down after their first defeat, although Neil Kinnock saw out two losses before resigning in 1992.

It’s possible, if unlikely, that Corbyn could become prime minister. If that prospect doesn’t materialise, however, the question is: will Corbyn follow the majority of his predecessors and resign, or will he hang on in office?

Will Corbyn stand down? The rules

There is no formal process for the parliamentary Labour party to oust its leader, as it discovered in the 2016 leadership challenge. Even after a majority of his MPs had voted no confidence in him, Corbyn stayed on, ultimately winning his second leadership contest after it was decided that the current leader should be automatically included on the ballot.

This year’s conference will vote on to reform the leadership selection process that would make it easier for a left-wing candidate to get on the ballot (nicknamed the “McDonnell amendment” by centrists): Corbyn could be waiting for this motion to pass before he resigns.

Will Corbyn stand down? The membership

Corbyn’s support in the membership is still strong. Without an equally compelling candidate to put before the party, Corbyn’s opponents in the PLP are unlikely to initiate another leadership battle they’re likely to lose.

That said, a general election loss could change that. Polling from March suggests that half of Labour members wanted Corbyn to stand down either immediately or before the general election.

Will Corbyn stand down? The rumours

Sources close to Corbyn have said that he might not stand down, even if he leads Labour to a crushing defeat this June. They mention Kinnock’s survival after the 1987 general election as a precedent (although at the 1987 election, Labour did gain seats).

Will Corbyn stand down? The verdict

Given his struggles to manage his own MPs and the example of other leaders, it would be remarkable if Corbyn did not stand down should Labour lose the general election. However, staying on after a vote of no-confidence in 2016 was also remarkable, and the mooted changes to the leadership election process give him a reason to hold on until September in order to secure a left-wing succession.

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