How Palin caught Obama off-guard

Because she is a mum who shops at Wal-Mart and disembowels moose many Americans, suspicious of intel

The Democrats have finally chosen their woman. The stand-in for Sarah Palin who will tussle with Joe Biden in closed-door rehearsals for the vice-presidential debate on 2 October will be 49-year-old Governor Jennifer Granholm of Michigan - a brilliant Democrat who would undoubtedly be a presidential contender herself, had she not been born in Canada and thus constitutionally ineligible to occupy the White House. She will undoubtedly give Biden a hard time, but will Palin?

Three weeks ago, just the thought of this year's vice-presidential debate would have made most Americans yawn. But the sudden emergence of Governor Palin on the world stage on 29 August has electrified this election and turned just about every previous assumption upside down. Biden's little finger, for example, probably knows more about foreign policy than Palin. However, I can easily visualise him patronising or bullying her - which would be catastrophic. Palin, just as easily, could reveal her ignorance or extremism in some equally disastrous way.

The very fact that it is the vice-presidential debate that is suddenly the hottest ticket in America - far more so than any of the three presidential confrontations between Barack Obama and John McCain - is indicative of the disaster that Palin has been for the Democrats so far.

The polls, which now show McCain and Palin ahead, tell their own story. The celebritydom market that Obama had cornered for himself was suddenly hijacked by a brand new political celebrity, spawning more media coverage, gossip and excitement than either Obama or McCain. Picking Palin to be his running mate was a high-risk gamble for McCain, but there are now only six weeks left in which she must maintain rigid discipline and avoid gaffes.

If she and McCain can pull that off, I suspect they will win on 4 November. It is certainly a very big if. But, precisely because it was so very unexpected, even by those close to McCain, Palin's emergence flummoxed and panicked Obama. Faced with a competing political celeb rity suddenly hurling invective and jokes at his expense to vast rallies of people roaring with laughter - an experience to which he had never been subjected - Obama visibly wilted and made the error of responding to her attacks rather than concentrating his fire steadily on McCain, a much more vulnerable and important target.

Michael Dukakis, the former governor of Massachusetts, made the same mistake in 1988 by campaigning against poor Dan Quayle, George H W Bush's running mate, rather than Bush himself. The result was that Bush and the blatantly inadequate Quayle won by a 40-state landslide. Adlai Stevenson had done exactly the same in 1952, handing two presidential terms to the Republicans.

So, if Obama does not speedily change course, and McCain-Palin do not present him with any gifts, he could well be heading for the same fate. His "change" theme was snatched from him in a single strike by the Republicans - but, at least so far, Obama has failed to adapt to the drastically changed political landscape. He seems unable to confront the inconvenient reality that rather than being the small-town mayor she once was, Palin is now the highly popular governor of a state with 29,000 full- and part-time employees and an annual budget of $12bn, and thus has more executive experience than Obama himself, McCain and Hillary Clinton put together.

The Sarah Palin/Alaska phenomenon is one, I suspect, that will never be properly understood in Britain. It is because she is a mum who shops at Wal-Mart, runs marathons and disembowels moose that so many Americans, ever suspicious of intellectuals or elitism, have granted her instant celebrity status. Alaska, a state I know well, still has more than a whiff of the frontier mentality. "We don't give a damn how they do it Outside" is an ever-popular bumper sticker, "Outside" being the rest of mainland America.

That kind of defiance, personified by Palin, is widely admired by Americans. The Democrats underestimate her at their peril. I would guess that Granholm, Palin's fellow governor from Michigan, is politically astute enough to know that the Democrats must now reserve most of their fire for McCain, and that when they attack Palin the target should be her extreme right-wing views rather than her celebrityhood.

Yet she also knows that the Democrats have selected a previously little-known male celeb rity to be their presidential candidate, who in turn chose a 65-year-old man to be his running mate, rather than the woman who finished in a virtual dead heat with him in the Democratic primaries.

Have the Republicans outwitted the Democrats again, this time by finding a little-known female celebrity as a supposed riposte to sexist hubris? Time, I fear, will tell.

42 comments

genecrabtree920's picture

"It is typical for the left to blame everything on Bush including the weather."
I blame Bush for a dumb war, and for raising spending while idiotically cutting taxes, hence ruining the dollar. And yes, your democratic congress is also a piece of crap. I didnt say it wasnt.

"You equate inheritance with a handout?"
It IS a handout!!! How is it any different to a socialist state handout?! Think about it, idiot! Both enourage laziness and both involve one person gaining for doing NOTHING. Why is it different just because it's your parents instead of the state? You think the state doesnt pay?! If they dont take your money when you die THEY TAKE IT SOMEWHERE ELSE. That's how the economy works.
"So your money belongs to the government when you die, not your family?"
Here's a question for a dumbass who clearly doesnt understand how the economy works. Would you rather pay taxes when you die or when you are alive? Because it's not "either you pay inheritance tax or you dont", it's "either you pay tax as inheritance or you pay somewhere else." The government will get it's money. When do you want to pay? Think about it. Honestly, American's are completely unable to understand the basic math. YOU WILL PAY FOR YOUR GOVERNMENT. There is no way around it. Doesnt matter where. Lower taxes and you pay in debt so you pay later. Remove inheritance tax and you pay somewhere else. You will pay. You need to learn that- it really is very simple.

fairplay's picture

i wont suffer matey. recession are times to make money. you are and always have been pro american

fortunately most of us on here see right through you. spoilt kid, bullied at boarding school, battling with your sexuality and definitely peering down your nose at us little people.

AL the rides nearly over. buy your che t-shirt baby and get with the revolution. its coming my friend and there will be no hiding place for the lunatics and thieves you covet

laurie's picture

Palin is drop-dead gorgeous.

PUMA08

andres's picture

with Palin no change for USA,we need new leader can make peace for everybody ,for Repulican just make war and bancrupt ,collaps in all over the like now.Sarah cannot change ,she is just a doll of Mc Cain. Obama for President of USA 2008 -2012.

montrell's picture

Martha's comment is the most relevant here I think.

No one is going to deny that Palin has some rough edges, but attacking her personally only really plays into the hands

of the millions of Republician looking for an excuse - any excuse - to vote for her and/or her boss.

The way to attack Sarah Palin is not through the guns or the pork or the bad soap-opera family life. Its by pointing

out again and again that saying "Im just a hockey mom who stumbled into politics" is not a credible basis for an

application for the job of Deputy Commander in Chief. That kind of hustle will certainly play to the crowds at GOP

rallies, but I suspect the generals in the War Room (if she tried it on them) might take a different view of her

understanding of America's problems and the level of her commitment to solving them.

Palin's a lightweight punching above her weight. Thats no crime and she's been doing that all her life and cleverly

too, so good luck to her on that. But even in an election such as this where both leading candidates are so much less

qualified than their predecessors and both have qualities that the other needs and lacks, she stands out.

A direct attack on her rough edges willl only embolden her - you have to cut off her room to manouvre, ignore the soap

opera, stop her playing to the crowd the way she has been doing so far and test her on how seriously is she taking her

application for the job she is applying for - thats when you play the "hockey mom" card, not before. Setting her up so

she digs her own hole and falls in is easier said than done of course, but probably as good a way of taking her down as

any.

Secondly, Andrew's point about how Obama is misreading his opponent is a perceptive one. Personally I dont think

Obama-Clinton was ever going to happen, given Obama's nature and his limitations. Kennedy-Johnson only worked because

Kennedy was the boss, Kennedy was as qualified as Johnson for the job and had as much political throw weight as Johnson

and (although both needed each other), Johnson needed Kennedy more than the other way round. And both of them knew it.

Even if Obama had had the bottle to choose Clinton, I suspect they would have fallen out a year or so down the line and

he would have had to ask for her resignation. Kennedy only had to deal with one Johnson at a time after all.

That said, Im not sure Biden helps him in any way that matters. Its not hindsight to say that Obama should have known

that McCain would pick somebody "young" and given the presence and impact of Hilary, had to have known that a woman was

at least a possibility. More than anything, Last but not least, Obama had to think like McCain and by so doing, wonder

whether McCain would ever want to be shafted again the way he was in 2000. Those wounds still run deep despite the

presence of Karl Rove and other ex-Bushites on his team. McCain wants to win of course, but some things you dont

forget. He wasnt ever going to pick someone who didnt accept who was boss of the outfit.

So who would I have picked? Er, let me get back to you on that..............

genecrabtree920's picture

"i wont suffer matey. recession are times to make money."
I just love this, fairplay! I think its great!!! By "making money", you mean... Flogging cigarettes for a few bucks!!! Hahaha oh yes very entrepreneurial!!!! Im sure youll make a fortune!!! People are bound to buy more cigarettes during a recession, arent they?! Imagine- you could charge an extra 50 cents!!! This is so funny... What a pathetic loser! Love it!!! How many ciggies did you sell today? Enough to rent a movie later?! Hahahaha maybe it you try really hard youll be able to afford a bicycle!!!

fairplay's picture

i was being sarcastic you complete clown. i have just shown you for what you really really are though. totally naive, no streetwise skills. easily wound up. in fact, an absolute donkey, in life and political thought (i apologise to any donkeys reading this who may be offended).

how you fell for that one has made my day. my week. even my year. i take the chubby brown remarks back AL. you are the mr bean of the new statesman.

getting back to sarah palin, did you two go to school together? neither one of you is the sharpest knife in the drawer after all!

ikotubo's picture

I can't be sure who it was that said "he whom the gods wish to destoy, they first make mad." This seems to be the case with the United States, which, like the long-forgotten empires of old, seems to be sowing the seeds for its own decline.

It was not only George Bush, for example, who took America to a war it could not afford economically (leaving aside the illegality and the human cost, both to Americans and raqis alike). It was his fellow "patriots" who willingly swallowed his manifest lies and villified anyone who dared even to urge caution. Now, they seem determined to elect a woman who (her equally simplistic worldview and zealous hypocrisy aside) has stated her desire to instigate a war with Russia. And I'm in no doubt that before long, anyone who dares to urge caution will be labelled "unpatriotic."

And, while I would shed no tear for the inevitable demise of both powers in the event of such a confrontation, the idea of living under Chinese hegemony fills me with much dread.

gumchewer's picture

CT - Just read your comment and am astounded by your ignorance. Don't think Andrew Stephen ever hinted for one second that Obama wouldn't win, but warned us (with great foresight, as it turns out) what a charlatan he is. We're seeing this already in his appointments of lobbyists, his big-money donors, and Zionist extremists. Also don't see a single fact or word word in the paragraph you quote, namely, "She also knows that the Democrats have selected a previously little-known male celebrity [oxymoron] to be their presidential candidate, who in turn chose a 65-year-old man to be his running mate, rather than the woman who finished in a virtual dead heat with him in the Democratic primaries." Not an oxymoron at all: Obama was previously little-known but became a celebrity thanks to the media. Are you disputing Stephen's assertion that Clinton finised in "a virtual dead heat" with Obama in the Democratic primaries"? In the primary elections alone, in fact, Hillary Clinton easily BEAT Obama; Obama did better in the caucuses, that's all. Get over it, CT, and get a life.

kevnsheri's picture

Really she said she would wage war with Russia? That is a pretty overly simplistic account of her statement. Typical democrat. Freeing Iraq from a horrible dictator who murdered thousands of his own people was an illegal action? Really... Wow... I thought attempting genocide would be illegal but hey it's not in our country so leave it alone.

Second earning money to pass down to your kids is every american's god given right and having the government take away the money you earned when you die is just plain retarded. I earned the money and if I choose to give it to my son so he can have a better shot at improving his life so be it. As most people seem to agree the government isn't quite so good at managing money so let me manage the money i earned and have the government stay out of it...

Before you spout off about Mccain and the economy do a little research about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the democrat push to give loans to subprime borrowers... Then come talk to me about this all being bush's fault.

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