No double-dip recession, just flatlining

Industry, manufacturing and agriculture remain weak, while public sector output grows month-on-month

The think-tank NIESR has released its monthly estimate of GDP (PDF), and the good news is that we don't appear to be in a double dip recession; it estimates GDP grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months to March.

The bad news:

At present the UK economy can best be described as ‘flat’. We expect the UK’s economic recovery to take hold in 2013.

Indexed to 2008 levels, the public sector remains healthy, having grown in output every month in the last year, despite the efforts of the government to "rebalance" the economy. Other areas aren't feeling so strong, though, with industrial output at 90.2 per cent of 2008 levels, and agriculture at 80.4 per cent.

In addition, the ONS released the latest figures on manufacturing today, and Richard Exell writes on them at Touchstone:

Today’s figures for output in the production industries are genuinely disappointing. I wouldn’t emphasise the disastrous Index of Production results (3.8 points down from January 2011) which are quite erratic, so much as the Index of Manufacturing. This is positive (a 0.3 point gain on 12 months ago) but terribly feeble – especially for what is supposed to be one of the bright spots of the recovery.

Construction is not yet the driver of a recovery. Credit: Getty

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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“Trembling, shaking / Oh, my heart is aching”: the EU out campaign song will give you chills

But not in a good way.

You know the story. Some old guys with vague dreams of empire want Britain to leave the European Union. They’ve been kicking up such a big fuss over the past few years that the government is letting the public decide.

And what is it that sways a largely politically indifferent electorate? Strikes hope in their hearts for a mildly less bureaucratic yet dangerously human rights-free future? An anthem, of course!

Originally by Carly You’re so Vain Simon, this is the song the Leave.EU campaign (Nigel Farage’s chosen group) has chosen. It is performed by the singer Antonia Suñer, for whom freedom from the technofederalists couldn’t come any suñer.

Here are the lyrics, of which your mole has done a close reading. But essentially it’s just nature imagery with fascist undertones and some heartburn.

"Let the river run

"Let all the dreamers

"Wake the nation.

"Come, the new Jerusalem."

Don’t use a river metaphor in anything political, unless you actively want to evoke Enoch Powell. Also, Jerusalem? That’s a bit... strong, isn’t it? Heavy connotations of being a little bit too Englandy.

"Silver cities rise,

"The morning lights,

"The streets that meet them,

"And sirens call them on

"With a song."

Sirens and streets. Doesn’t sound like a wholly un-authoritarian view of the UK’s EU-free future to me.

"It’s asking for the taking,

"Trembling, shaking,

"Oh, my heart is aching."

A reference to the elderly nature of many of the UK’s eurosceptics, perhaps?

"We’re coming to the edge,

"Running on the water,

"Coming through the fog,

"Your sons and daughters."

I feel like this is something to do with the hosepipe ban.

"We the great and small,

"Stand on a star,

"And blaze a trail of desire,

"Through the dark’ning dawn."

Everyone will have to speak this kind of English in the new Jerusalem, m'lady, oft with shorten’d words which will leave you feeling cringéd.

"It’s asking for the taking.

"Come run with me now,

"The sky is the colour of blue,

"You’ve never even seen,

"In the eyes of your lover."

I think this means: no one has ever loved anyone with the same colour eyes as the EU flag.

I'm a mole, innit.