No double-dip recession, just flatlining

Industry, manufacturing and agriculture remain weak, while public sector output grows month-on-month

Construction is not yet the driver of a recovery. Credit: Getty

The think-tank NIESR has released its monthly estimate of GDP (PDF), and the good news is that we don't appear to be in a double dip recession; it estimates GDP grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months to March.

The bad news:

At present the UK economy can best be described as ‘flat’. We expect the UK’s economic recovery to take hold in 2013.

Indexed to 2008 levels, the public sector remains healthy, having grown in output every month in the last year, despite the efforts of the government to "rebalance" the economy. Other areas aren't feeling so strong, though, with industrial output at 90.2 per cent of 2008 levels, and agriculture at 80.4 per cent.

In addition, the ONS released the latest figures on manufacturing today, and Richard Exell writes on them at Touchstone:

Today’s figures for output in the production industries are genuinely disappointing. I wouldn’t emphasise the disastrous Index of Production results (3.8 points down from January 2011) which are quite erratic, so much as the Index of Manufacturing. This is positive (a 0.3 point gain on 12 months ago) but terribly feeble – especially for what is supposed to be one of the bright spots of the recovery.