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In Tehran, echoes of Baghdad 2002
Published 05 March 2007
The resigned weariness of ordinary Iranians is horribly reminiscent of pre-war Iraq
The Alborz Mountains of northern Teh ran, still encrusted with a thick pure white snow, tower above the Iranian capital. When the wind blows off the peaks it sends a crisp burst of clean air to the polluted and clogged streets of the city below. It may be my third visit to Tehran in the past six months, but it will take many more trips here to get used to the impossibly dense traffic of this hyper-energetic city. Tehran has been even more bustling than usual this week. The reason for the added buzz is the beginning of Norouz, the Iranian New Year. Norouz is a Persian tradition that pre-dates the Islamic era and marks the first day of spring - the paradox being that this year it is taking place as the crisis over Iran's nuclear technology grows ever darker. Yet Norouz is testament to Iran's powerful dual identity as a country that sees itself as both Persian and Islamic.
Just by Revolution Square, near Tehran University's famous campus, I spent an afternoon speaking with many Iranians of all ages. One of the most dangerous myths peddled by British and especially by American politicians is that the Iranian state is monolithic, with society parroting the same views as the government of the day. Half an hour speaking to Iranians on the street will disabuse you of this. Some of them express their support for the Iranian government's refusal unconditionally to halt its uranium-enrichment programme, while many others are opposed to continuing with enrichment defiantly at the cost of further economic sanctions or, even worse, of military action by the United States and/or Israel. Other people are open about their disappointment at President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's handling of the nuclear crisis.
Similar views are being expressed in Iran's governing authorities at the most senior levels. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the man who lost the run-off presidential elections to Ahmadinejad in 2005, but who remains enormously influential, has lately urged western governments not to abandon the momentum for negotiation. Rafsanjani is chairman of the Expediency Council - in effect the inner sanctum of the theocratic authorities who advise the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
His comments were meant as a signal to Europe and the US, that the more Washington employs aggressive language and actions, the more the ground is cut from beneath those in Iran itself who would like to see a negotiated compromise, allowing all sides to save face. As if to prove the point, on Sunday, the day before the second US battle group arrived in the Gulf, Ahmadinejad said Iran's nuclear programme was like a runaway train that could not be stopped and did not have a reverse gear.
Speaking with ordinary Iranians in Tehran this week, however, I found something else that left me even more worried and shocked. There was a resigned weariness in the voices of many people that was horribly reminiscent of the mood in Baghdad from the end of 2002.
I have returned to Tehran on assignment for al-Jazeera. Audiences around the world will be asking many of the same questions they asked of correspondents in the Iraqi capital before the invasion. Is there a sense of fear and panic in Tehran? No. Are people there aware of how dangerous the situation is? Yes. Are people aware of the comments being made by Bush officials about the possibility of military action? Yes. And yet ordinary life carries on. In Baghdad, this was an indication of how ordinary Iraqis never doubted the US and UK would invade, and whatever they said or did would not make any difference. In Tehran, it has more to do with an unwillingness to believe that the Bush administration, given Iraq and Afghanistan, is in any position to carry out meaningful military action.
Those many Iranians who do not underestimate the Bush capacity for unilateralism and addiction to pre-emption believe that air strikes would only highlight the military no-win situation Washington now finds itself in. If the US attacks, it will strengthen Iran's position in the Islamic world, while only delaying the inevitable. One young man, a PhD student, put it neatly: "How do you bomb nuclear knowledge out of a nation's mind?" And, for that matter, which country has ever surrendered to an air force?
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